Monthly Outlook

June 2022 Outlook: Short Term Bounce, Midterm Low Later

The bulls had a good week, but the bear market does not appear over to us. When the market rallies and bounces around off bear market lows and commentary runs the gamut from permabear doomsayers to bottom callers it reminds us of the canny words our friend Dan Turov, who runs Turov on Timing, wrote twenty-one years ago this week in Barron’s.

Bear markets don’t act like a medicine ball rolling down a smooth hill. Instead, they behave like a basketball ...

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May 2022 Outlook: Midterm Bottom on the Horizon

The Worst Six Months of the year (May-October) for 2022 commences on the heels of the worst start for the market since 1950. At the end of April, S&P 500 was down 13.3% for the year. The second worst start to the year was 1970, down 11.4% – more on 1970 in a moment. As of the close on April 29, April is down 4.9% for DJIA, 8.8% for S&P 500 and 13.3% for NASDAQ. April being the best month ...

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April 2022 Outlook: War, Inflation & Fed Loom Over End Best Six Months

As we enter the last month of the Best Six Months, the market logged its first down quarter in two years since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to 1930 when our S&P 500 data begins Q1 was positive 55 years and negative 37 times over the 92-year span. Overall, years that advanced in Q1 were up 46 of the 55 years or 83.6% of the time with an average gain of 13.2% for S&P 500. Years when Q1 ...

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March 2022 Outlook: Cold War 2.0 – Bear Lurks – Midterm Bottom Nears

Despite all the warnings and rhetoric from the U.S. et al and Putin’s own words the world still seemed unprepared and shocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that got officially underway at dawn local time February 24, 2022, with the brazen, matter-of-fact speech by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in no uncertain terms threatening the west with historic wrath should they interfere.

Under the auspices of protecting the breakaway regions and his disdain for NATO’s continued eastward expansion toward his borders ...

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February 2022 Outlook: Heightened Volatility Expected to Continue Through Midterm Elections

In our 2022 Annual Forecast last month we were candid about our less than sanguine outlook for 2022 and that we were expecting a reversion to the mean in annual returns and a decent correction. We shared the many obstacles and hurdles we felt the market would be facing in 2022. First and foremost are the forces of the 4-Year Cycle and the impact the midterm elections have on the market.

Midterm election years are notoriously volatile as the two political ...

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2022 Forecast: Early Year High, Worst Six Months Correction & Q4 Rally

As we laid out in our 2021 Forecast Best Case scenario last year Covid-19 vaccines rolled out rather well in 2021 allowing lockdowns and most restrictions to be removed. Additional fiscal stimulus and an extremely accommodative Fed kept the economy humming and the market rallying. Unemployment dove from the early pandemic peak rather precipitously. Leisure, hospitality and travel did not surge per se, but they sure did rebound. The market is on pace to deliver our Best ...

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December 2021 Outlook: New Highs Likely Before Yearend

Seasonal patterns continue to reassert themselves and that is positive for the probability of new highs by yearend. Typical September and early October weakness created a solid set up for our October 8 Seasonal MACD Buy Signal. Then late-October seasonal strength carried into early November before the usual pre-Thanksgiving weakness ensued. As we head into December, the market is trying to find its footing and we look for the market to shake off its current funk as it usually does ...

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November 2021 Outlook: Best Months & Yearend Rally Begins

It looks as though the market has resisted Octoberphobia and averted the feared crashes or massacres that have given the month its bad reputation. More significantly for us though is the continuation of the return to normal seasonal patterns we began to see last month that had been off kilter through much of the pandemic. As you can see in the chart of the typical October pattern over the recent 21-year period stocks have tracked the seasonal pattern rather closely ...

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October 2021 Outlook: Market Likely Wards Off October’s Curse?

Well. Seasonality is back. Everyone in the financial media has been talking about September seasonal weakness lately. And here we are in September and the market has sold off around the 5% or so we projected last month. And it did so in the notoriously treacherous week after September quarterly options and futures expiration.

Then, as expected, traders and fund managers bought the 5% dip as they have throughout this bull market rally with the blessing of the Federal Reserve’s continuing ...

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September 2021 Outlook: End of Q3 Has Been Challenging

Aloha friends. We’ve seen a lot these past two weeks in Hawaii from snorkeling with sea turtles and swimming in waterfalls on Maui to the southernmost point in the U.S. and Kilauea Caldera on the Big Island, then to surfing Hanalei Bay and hiking the Na Pali Coast in Kauai and now Waikiki Beach on Oahu for the last leg of the trip. We will be heading to Pearl Harbor National Memorial and Banzai Pipeline before heading home. We joke ...

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