Monthly Outlook

Market Outlook February 2019: Market Internals Support Rally & Solid 2019 Gains

The Dow posted a 7.2% gain for the month of January – not only its best monthly gain in the past three months, but its best January since 1989. S&P 500 outpaced the Dow with a 7.9% gain for the month – its best January since 1987, scoring our third January Indicator Trifecta in a row. Further details on the bullish implications of the January Indicator Trifecta can be seen here “January Barometer 2019 Official Results.

NASDAQ stocks ...

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Market Outlook January 2019 & Annual Forecast: Santa on Notice from Dueling Grinches – Low Nears – Bear Lurks

Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump have been competing for who can freak the market out most. Our contention for months has been that the Fed is the biggest risk to the market and economy and that surely seems to have come home to roost the past few months and this week.

Last month in our “Market at a Glance” we said that, “After nearly a decade at zero, a brief pause to evaluate the impact of recent hikes does not ...

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Market Outlook December 2018: Season of the Rally

It is the season for rallies, but not the Santa Claus Rally quite yet. As I reiterated once again earlier this week on my blog, the Santa Claus Rally is not any seasonal rally in the fourth quarter of the year or around yearend, it is the usual short, sweet, respectable rally Santa brings to Wall Street within the last five days of the year and the first two in January.

The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by ...

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Market Outlook November 2018: Midterm Time Is Bullish

For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October.

The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not ...

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Market Outlook October 2018: Midterm October Launching Pad

Historically, the “Worst Six Months” (WSM) of the midterm year has been weaker than WSM in all other years of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle, with Q2-Q3 of the midterm year being the weakest consecutive two-quarter combo of the cycle. August and September have historically been the worst two months of the year, though they rank higher in midterm years, but have still posted average losses in midterm years since 1950.

This has not been the case this year. Despite a ...

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Market Outlook September 2018: Tumultuous Month Often Bucks Bulls Off Easy Ride

Midterm years are notoriously a rough year for markets as presidents push through their most disruptive policy initiatives and battle the opposition party to retain congressional seats. But the last three midterm years, 2006, 2010 and 2014 have been strong followed by troubled pre-election years. 2007 brought us the major top of the Financial Crisis with the S&P up 3.5%. 2011 suffered a mini-bear from April to October that shaved 19.4% off the S&P, which ended the year down a ...

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Market Outlook August 2018: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

Geopolitical concerns over the past few months from snafus and issues at the U.S. southern border over immigration disputes to tough tariff talk and trade war concerns have been shrugged off by the market since the end of June. Positive Q2 earnings, rising GDP growth, sustained unemployment and low rates continue to please the market, sending the market higher in July. This put DJIA up 4.00%, S&P 500 up 3.75% and NASDAQ up 4.40% for the month of July so ...

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Market Outlook July 2018: June Swoon Indicates Time to Take More Risk Off For Summer

So far our June 21 NASDAQ Best 8 Months Sell Signal has turned out to be rather timely. From our November 28 Buy Signal to our June 21 Sell Signal NASDAQ gained 11.6%. NASDAQ has given back sizeable ground since June 21. The Dow and S&P 500 have been in selloff mode a bit longer since June 13.

We have been getting on the defensive since our May 2 Dow and S&P 500 Best Six Months Sell signal and it now ...

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Market Outlook June 2018: Best 8 Months End, Midterm Machinations Suggest Rough Summer for Stocks

To all the market seasonality naysayers and “Sell in May” or Best Six Months/Worst Six Months critics, we say thank you for your skepticism. Despite your disbelief (and perhaps because of it) the recurring seasonal market patterns highlighted in the Stock Trader’s Almanac continue to persist. Of course they are not perfect and do not work 100% of the time, and some have fallen by the wayside and some have shifted – we’ve tracked and updated those.

However, supported by a ...

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Market Outlook May 2018: Worst Six Months, Crueler In Midterm Years, Begins

As the market is finally making a rally attempt at the end of April, the last month of the Best Six Months” we are obligated to remind you that the “Worst Six Months” are now upon us, and as we pointed out last month this bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years.

For the near term over the next several weeks the rally may have some legs. But as we get into the summer doldrums ...

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