Monthly Outlook

September 2022 Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet

While the folks at the Fed convened their annual symposium in late August at Jackson Lake Lodge in the Wyoming wilderness fishing for answers on the economy and its next policy moves Jeff retreated to the woods and beaches in Ogunquit, Maine. He did not come across any bears on the morning hikes along the Ogunquit River, but the level of tourist activity there was suspiciously slow.

Maine’s popular southern coast is not dead, but the crowds were smaller, wait times ...

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August 2022 Outlook: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

We believe inflation, war, recession fears, aggressive Fed rate hikes, persistent supply chain issues, layoffs, earnings misses, and lingering pandemic issues drove the market into official bear market territory last month. Driven by hopes of a soft landing, a resilient labor market, pockets of positive economic and corporate results, and some rather seriously oversold conditions in big name tech and growth stocks the market has rallied smartly off the June lows.

At the end of July DJIA was up 9.9% from ...

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July 2022 Outlook: Worst Case Scenario in Play No Bottom Yet

Unfortunately, the stock market is delivering on its bearish historical 4-Year Cycle and seasonal tendencies here at the midway point of 2022. It is also playing out the less than sanguine outlook we wrote last year around this time in the 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac (pages 10-11) and in our annual forecast from last December 16. So where do we go from here?

Much to our chagrin, we believe the short answer is that we have likely not ...

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June 2022 Outlook: Short Term Bounce, Midterm Low Later

The bulls had a good week, but the bear market does not appear over to us. When the market rallies and bounces around off bear market lows and commentary runs the gamut from permabear doomsayers to bottom callers it reminds us of the canny words our friend Dan Turov, who runs Turov on Timing, wrote twenty-one years ago this week in Barron’s.

Bear markets don’t act like a medicine ball rolling down a smooth hill. Instead, they behave like a basketball ...

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May 2022 Outlook: Midterm Bottom on the Horizon

The Worst Six Months of the year (May-October) for 2022 commences on the heels of the worst start for the market since 1950. At the end of April, S&P 500 was down 13.3% for the year. The second worst start to the year was 1970, down 11.4% – more on 1970 in a moment. As of the close on April 29, April is down 4.9% for DJIA, 8.8% for S&P 500 and 13.3% for NASDAQ. April being the best month ...

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April 2022 Outlook: War, Inflation & Fed Loom Over End Best Six Months

As we enter the last month of the Best Six Months, the market logged its first down quarter in two years since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to 1930 when our S&P 500 data begins Q1 was positive 55 years and negative 37 times over the 92-year span. Overall, years that advanced in Q1 were up 46 of the 55 years or 83.6% of the time with an average gain of 13.2% for S&P 500. Years when Q1 ...

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March 2022 Outlook: Cold War 2.0 – Bear Lurks – Midterm Bottom Nears

Despite all the warnings and rhetoric from the U.S. et al and Putin’s own words the world still seemed unprepared and shocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that got officially underway at dawn local time February 24, 2022, with the brazen, matter-of-fact speech by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in no uncertain terms threatening the west with historic wrath should they interfere.

Under the auspices of protecting the breakaway regions and his disdain for NATO’s continued eastward expansion toward his borders ...

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February 2022 Outlook: Heightened Volatility Expected to Continue Through Midterm Elections

In our 2022 Annual Forecast last month we were candid about our less than sanguine outlook for 2022 and that we were expecting a reversion to the mean in annual returns and a decent correction. We shared the many obstacles and hurdles we felt the market would be facing in 2022. First and foremost are the forces of the 4-Year Cycle and the impact the midterm elections have on the market.

Midterm election years are notoriously volatile as the two political ...

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2022 Forecast: Early Year High, Worst Six Months Correction & Q4 Rally

As we laid out in our 2021 Forecast Best Case scenario last year Covid-19 vaccines rolled out rather well in 2021 allowing lockdowns and most restrictions to be removed. Additional fiscal stimulus and an extremely accommodative Fed kept the economy humming and the market rallying. Unemployment dove from the early pandemic peak rather precipitously. Leisure, hospitality and travel did not surge per se, but they sure did rebound. The market is on pace to deliver our Best ...

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December 2021 Outlook: New Highs Likely Before Yearend

Seasonal patterns continue to reassert themselves and that is positive for the probability of new highs by yearend. Typical September and early October weakness created a solid set up for our October 8 Seasonal MACD Buy Signal. Then late-October seasonal strength carried into early November before the usual pre-Thanksgiving weakness ensued. As we head into December, the market is trying to find its footing and we look for the market to shake off its current funk as it usually does ...

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