Posts Tagged 'S&P 500'

September 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. September is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 month of the year by average performance. Average declines range from –0.5% to –0.7%. Midterm-year Septembers have been mixed notwithstanding a modest improvement in rank. DJIA has declined in 11 of the last 18 midterm-year Septembers. End-of-quarter window dressing and rebalancing has contributed to some nasty, late-September selloffs.

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September 2022 Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet

While the folks at the Fed convened their annual symposium in late August at Jackson Lake Lodge in the Wyoming wilderness fishing for answers on the economy and its next policy moves Jeff retreated to the woods and beaches in Ogunquit, Maine. He did not come across any bears on the morning hikes along the Ogunquit River, but the level of tourist activity there was suspiciously slow.

Maine’s popular southern coast is not dead, but the crowds were smaller, wait times ...

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Almanac Update September 2022: Worst Month Modestly Better in Midterm Years

Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), and Russell 2000 (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. Although September’s overall rank improves modestly in midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–0.8%) and NASDAQ (–0.8%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years. Although September ...

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August 2022 Outlook: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

We believe inflation, war, recession fears, aggressive Fed rate hikes, persistent supply chain issues, layoffs, earnings misses, and lingering pandemic issues drove the market into official bear market territory last month. Driven by hopes of a soft landing, a resilient labor market, pockets of positive economic and corporate results, and some rather seriously oversold conditions in big name tech and growth stocks the market has rallied smartly off the June lows.

At the end of July DJIA was up 9.9% from ...

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Almanac Update August 2022: Positive Midterm Record Marred by Sizable Losses

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best DJIA month from 1901 to 1951. Now August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 month over the last 34 years, 1988-2021 with average declines ranging from –0.3% by Russell 2000 to –0.8% by DJIA. For NASDAQ August ranks second worst over the same period with ...

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July 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. July has been the strongest month of the third quarter. Midterm-year Julys have a mixed record ranking #3 for DJIA and #5 S&P 500, but for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 July is the worst month in midterm years. NASDAQ’s seasonal midyear rally ends on or around July 14. Early July gains tend to fizzle after mid-month. July is the first ...

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July 2022 Outlook: Worst Case Scenario in Play No Bottom Yet

Unfortunately, the stock market is delivering on its bearish historical 4-Year Cycle and seasonal tendencies here at the midway point of 2022. It is also playing out the less than sanguine outlook we wrote last year around this time in the 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac (pages 10-11) and in our annual forecast from last December 16. So where do we go from here?

Much to our chagrin, we believe the short answer is that we have likely not ...

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Almanac Update July 2022: Worst NASDAQ Month in Midterm Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and strong performances in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been ...

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June 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” In all years since 1950, June ranks #11 for DJIA and #9 for S&P 500, but in midterm years like this year, June is the worst month for DJIA and S&P 500 and second worst for NASDAQ. Average losses in midterm-year Junes range from 1.4% by NASDAQ to 1.8% for ...

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