Posts Tagged 'S&P 500'

February 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, tend to ...

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Market Outlook February 2019: Market Internals Support Rally & Solid 2019 Gains

The Dow posted a 7.2% gain for the month of January – not only its best monthly gain in the past three months, but its best January since 1989. S&P 500 outpaced the Dow with a 7.9% gain for the month – its best January since 1987, scoring our third January Indicator Trifecta in a row. Further details on the bullish implications of the January Indicator Trifecta can be seen here “January Barometer 2019 Official Results.

NASDAQ stocks ...

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Almanac Update February 2019: Generally a Tepid Month for Large Caps

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is not all that stellar. February ranks no better than seventh and has posted paltry average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the seventh best ...

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January Barometer: Trifecta Up 3-For-3 Bullish for 2019

S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 7.9% gain. This is the best S&P January since 1987. This is also the third January Trifecta in a row. Last year the S&P 500 crumbled in the fourth quarter under the weight of triple threats from a hawkish and confusing Fed, a newly divided Congress and the U.S. trade battle with China, finishing in the red. 2017’s Trifecta was followed by a full-year gain of 19.4%, including a February-December gain of ...

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January 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

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Market Outlook January 2019 & Annual Forecast: Santa on Notice from Dueling Grinches – Low Nears – Bear Lurks

Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump have been competing for who can freak the market out most. Our contention for months has been that the Fed is the biggest risk to the market and economy and that surely seems to have come home to roost the past few months and this week.

Last month in our “Market at a Glance” we said that, “After nearly a decade at zero, a brief pause to evaluate the impact of recent hikes does not ...

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Almanac Update January 2019: Top Month for Stocks in Pre-Election Years

January has quite a legendary reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but sixth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2018 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those nineteen Januarys with ...

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December 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is the number one S&P 500 (+1.6%) month and second best for DJIA (+1.7%) and NASDAQ (1.8% since 1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Monday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. S&P has averaged gains of 1.3% ...

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Market Outlook December 2018: Season of the Rally

It is the season for rallies, but not the Santa Claus Rally quite yet. As I reiterated once again earlier this week on my blog, the Santa Claus Rally is not any seasonal rally in the fourth quarter of the year or around yearend, it is the usual short, sweet, respectable rally Santa brings to Wall Street within the last five days of the year and the first two in January.

The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by ...

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Almanac Update December 2018: Top Month Fueled by Holiday Cheer

December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second-best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. It’s also the second best for NASDAQ (1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback.

Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by ...

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