Posts Tagged 'S&P 500'

Market Outlook June 2019: May’s Selloffs Yield June Boons

On the heels of one of the strongest January to April starts, May was destined for weakness. But this bodes well for June. May is notoriously weaker in pre-election years, like 2019, and after big starts to the year. The first four months of 2019 were up 17.5% for the S&P 500, the third best since 1950. Following the previous top 20 starts May was down 9 times for an average gain of 0.2%. June is more bullish in general ...

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Almanac Update June 2019: Better in Pre-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 48 years as a rule ranking eighth with a 0.6% average gain, up 26 of 48 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.3%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (–0.02% average).

In pre-election years since 1950, June ranks no better than ...

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Strong Starts & Weak Mays: A June Boon

Previous analysis of big gains the first four months indicated weakness was in store for the merry month of May. Now that the market has indeed suffered this May the outlook for June is a boon at least historically speaking.

The table below shows the top 20 first four month gains for the for the S&P 500 with the subsequent changes for May, June, Rest of the Year, “Worst Six Months” May-October, 2nd half July-December and full year performance. While most ...

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Day After Memorial Day Had Been Improving

Our office will be closed for observance of Memorial Day on Monday, May 27. U.S stock and bond markets will also be closed. As you spend some quality time off with family and friends please take time to commemorate those who have paid the ultimate price while serving in the U.S. military.

For decades the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been tracking and monitoring the market’s performance around holidays. The trading day after Memorial Day has a mixed record going back to ...

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Market Outlook May 2019: Market Prone to Short-Term Weakness in May

After a rough start to the “Best Six Months” with the market falling precipitously in November-December the recovery rally has put DJIA up 5.9%, S&P 500 up 8.6% and NASDAQ up 10.8% for the Best Six Months November-April from the October 31, 2018 close to the April 30, 2019 close. The history of the Best Six/Worst Six Months is impressive, though there have been off periods throughout its history. But now as the Best Six Months has come to a ...

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May 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance of 1.9%.

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Almanac Update May 2019: Challenging Month in Pre-Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,008,519 for November-April in 68 years compared to just $1,031 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $720,389 for November-April ...

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Strong Starts Hog Gains for the Year

Big gains the first four months of 2019 have some Wall Street pundits and analysts concerned. While strong starts for the market for the first four months of the year don’t leave much for the rest of the year, it is by no means a negative implication or bearish indication. S&P 500 leads the pack with its 17.5% gain coming in at #3 since 1950. NASDAQ’s 22.0% gain is the 5th best first four month since 1971. DJIA’s 14.0% rise ...

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Almanac Update April 2019: Up Thirteen Years in a Row

The first trading day of April and the second quarter, has enjoyed notable strength over the past 24 years, advancing 17 times with an average gain of 0.37% in all 24 years for S&P 500. However, four of the seven declines have occurred in the last six years. Other declines were in 2001, 2002 and 2005. DJIA’s record on April’s first trading day matches the S&P 500, 17 advances in 24 years. NASDAQ recent performance is slightly weaker than DJIA ...

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