Posts Tagged 'recession'

October 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Improving. October is the last month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months” and NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months.” Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October and seven were in midterm years. October is the #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month in midterm years, #2 for NASDAQ. STA Seasonal MACD Buy signal can trigger any time after the close ...

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October 2022 Outlook: Bear-Killer and Bargain Month

We coined the term “bear-killer” for October way back in 1968 in the 1969 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the second edition. The original theory from the 1969 Almanac still holds water.

October has been the big bargain month of the post-World War II era. Its chief asset is its enviable position in the calendar. It falls in front of the most bullish three-month span of the year (November, December and January). At this time, volume picks up considerably and there is a ...

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September 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. September is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 month of the year by average performance. Average declines range from –0.5% to –0.7%. Midterm-year Septembers have been mixed notwithstanding a modest improvement in rank. DJIA has declined in 11 of the last 18 midterm-year Septembers. End-of-quarter window dressing and rebalancing has contributed to some nasty, late-September selloffs.

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September 2022 Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet

While the folks at the Fed convened their annual symposium in late August at Jackson Lake Lodge in the Wyoming wilderness fishing for answers on the economy and its next policy moves Jeff retreated to the woods and beaches in Ogunquit, Maine. He did not come across any bears on the morning hikes along the Ogunquit River, but the level of tourist activity there was suspiciously slow.

Maine’s popular southern coast is not dead, but the crowds were smaller, wait times ...

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August 2022 Outlook: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

We believe inflation, war, recession fears, aggressive Fed rate hikes, persistent supply chain issues, layoffs, earnings misses, and lingering pandemic issues drove the market into official bear market territory last month. Driven by hopes of a soft landing, a resilient labor market, pockets of positive economic and corporate results, and some rather seriously oversold conditions in big name tech and growth stocks the market has rallied smartly off the June lows.

At the end of July DJIA was up 9.9% from ...

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July 2022 Outlook: Worst Case Scenario in Play No Bottom Yet

Unfortunately, the stock market is delivering on its bearish historical 4-Year Cycle and seasonal tendencies here at the midway point of 2022. It is also playing out the less than sanguine outlook we wrote last year around this time in the 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac (pages 10-11) and in our annual forecast from last December 16. So where do we go from here?

Much to our chagrin, we believe the short answer is that we have likely not ...

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June 2022 Outlook: Short Term Bounce, Midterm Low Later

The bulls had a good week, but the bear market does not appear over to us. When the market rallies and bounces around off bear market lows and commentary runs the gamut from permabear doomsayers to bottom callers it reminds us of the canny words our friend Dan Turov, who runs Turov on Timing, wrote twenty-one years ago this week in Barron’s.

Bear markets don’t act like a medicine ball rolling down a smooth hill. Instead, they behave like a basketball ...

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May 2022 Outlook: Midterm Bottom on the Horizon

The Worst Six Months of the year (May-October) for 2022 commences on the heels of the worst start for the market since 1950. At the end of April, S&P 500 was down 13.3% for the year. The second worst start to the year was 1970, down 11.4% – more on 1970 in a moment. As of the close on April 29, April is down 4.9% for DJIA, 8.8% for S&P 500 and 13.3% for NASDAQ. April being the best month ...

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April 2022 Outlook: War, Inflation & Fed Loom Over End Best Six Months

As we enter the last month of the Best Six Months, the market logged its first down quarter in two years since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to 1930 when our S&P 500 data begins Q1 was positive 55 years and negative 37 times over the 92-year span. Overall, years that advanced in Q1 were up 46 of the 55 years or 83.6% of the time with an average gain of 13.2% for S&P 500. Years when Q1 ...

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