Posts Tagged 'sentiment'

February 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, tend to ...

Continue Reading →
0

January 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

Continue Reading →
0

December 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is the number one S&P 500 (+1.6%) month and second best for DJIA (+1.7%) and NASDAQ (1.8% since 1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Monday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. S&P has averaged gains of 1.3% ...

Continue Reading →
0

November 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. November also marks the beginning of the best consecutive three-month span November-January. Midterm year Novembers are solid ranking near the top across the board. Our Seasonal MACD Buy signal can trigger anytime now.

Continue Reading →
0

Market Outlook October 2018: Midterm October Launching Pad

Historically, the “Worst Six Months” (WSM) of the midterm year has been weaker than WSM in all other years of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle, with Q2-Q3 of the midterm year being the weakest consecutive two-quarter combo of the cycle. August and September have historically been the worst two months of the year, though they rank higher in midterm years, but have still posted average losses in midterm years since 1950.

This has not been the case this year. Despite a ...

Continue Reading →
0

September 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1950), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). In midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–1.0%), NASDAQ (–0.8%), Russell 1000 (–1.1%) and Russell 2000 (–0.6%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years.

Continue Reading →
0

Page 1 of 2 12