Posts Tagged 'sentiment'

December 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is the number one S&P 500 (+1.6%) month and second best for DJIA (+1.7%) and NASDAQ (1.8% since 1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Monday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. S&P has averaged gains of 1.3% ...

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November 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. November also marks the beginning of the best consecutive three-month span November-January. Midterm year Novembers are solid ranking near the top across the board. Our Seasonal MACD Buy signal can trigger anytime now.

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Market Outlook October 2018: Midterm October Launching Pad

Historically, the “Worst Six Months” (WSM) of the midterm year has been weaker than WSM in all other years of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle, with Q2-Q3 of the midterm year being the weakest consecutive two-quarter combo of the cycle. August and September have historically been the worst two months of the year, though they rank higher in midterm years, but have still posted average losses in midterm years since 1950.

This has not been the case this year. Despite a ...

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September 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1950), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). In midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–1.0%), NASDAQ (–0.8%), Russell 1000 (–1.1%) and Russell 2000 (–0.6%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years.

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August 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. August is the worst month of the year since 1988. Average losses over the last 30 years range from 0.3% by NASDAQ to 1.2% by DJIA. In midterm years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve slightly: #8 DJIA, #9 S&P 500, #11 NASDAQ (since 1974). Average losses range from 0.4% for S&P 500 to 1.8% for NASDAQ. DJIA suffered double-digit losses in ...

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July 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.4% average gain. Midterm-year July rankings are something of a mixed bag, ranking #5 for DJIA and #6 S&P ...

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