Posts Tagged 'sentiment'

June 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” and the second month of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Worst Six Months.” In post-election years, June is second worst for DJIA and third worst for S&P 500. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been stronger with average gains of 0.4% and 1.2% respectively.

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June 2021 Outlook: NASDAQ Best 8 Months Ends – Sideways Summer Trading

Stocks have gone virtually nowhere since Stock Trader’s Almanac April 22 Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell Signal. Trading volume has already begun to slowdown as it tends to do from Memorial Day to Labor Day in what we refer to as the summer doldrums. This reduction in trading volume (page 48, STA 2021) both contributes to and is emblematic of seasonal market weakness during the Worst Six Months May-October (page 147, STA 2021) and the Worst Four Months July-October ...

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May 2021 Outlook: Muted Market Action Anticipated Over Worst Six Months

Seasonality remains back to normal and it appears from all our observations that it will continue to track historical patterns for the remainder of the year. April’s solid returns across the board led by S&P 500 (up 5.2%) and NASDAQ (up 5.4%) and new highs for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ capped off a banner Best Six Months. DJIA is up 27.8%, S&P 500 is up 27.9%, NASDAQ is up 28.0% and the Russell 2000 is up an amazing 47.3% ...

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April 2021 Outlook: Late-March Weakness Sets Up End of Best Six Months Rally

The last month of our “Best Six Months” is now upon us. So it’s the perfect time to provide a refresher for longtime readers and primer for those that have recently joined us. We do not simply “Sell in May and go away.” We employ a more nuanced and subtle approach to how we implement our Best & Worst Months Switching Strategies detailed in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac and on www.stocktradersalmanac.com. We are Continue Reading →

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April 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the last month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months.” It is DJIA’s best month since 1950, second best S&P 500 and fourth for NASDAQ. DJIA has been up 15 Aprils in a row. Remain vigilant as our Seasonal MACD Sell for DJIA and S&P 500 can occur anytime on or after April 1.

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March 2021 Outlook: Frothy Market Succumbs & Looks for Support In March

Unfortunately the February weakness we warned about last issue began to materialize mid-month and accelerated into month-end. The “excuse du jour” is rising bond yields as the 10-Year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. The reaction to the 10-Year yield moving above 1.5% could be a little overblown. It’s barely back to pre-Covid levels. Perhaps it’s more a sign of a healthy economy and rising inflation expectations, which is precisely what the Fed has been trying to foster. We’re not overly concerned ...

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March 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. March is normally a decent performing market month however post-election year payments to the Piper can take a toll on March as average historical gains are trimmed noticeably. In post-election years March ranks: #8 DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000; NASDAQ is 4th worst with an average loss of 0.2%.

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January 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.8%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and fifth for S&P 500 since 1950. Post-election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8% NASDAQ +2.3%), but still positive. The ...

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