Posts Tagged 'sentiment'

January 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.8%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and fifth for S&P 500 since 1950. Post-election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8% NASDAQ +2.3%), but still positive. The Santa ...

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December 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number three S&P 500 and DJIA month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Thursday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. In ...

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November 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November is the #1 month for S&P 500. It’s also the first month of the “Best Six/Eight Months.” Since 1950, November is #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month in election years. Recent exceptions include November 2000 (undecided election) and 2008 (financial crisis). Keep an eye out for our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal. It can trigger anytime now.

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October 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 and the last month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months”. In election years, October ranks dead last, but excluding October 2008, ranking improves to mid-pack. Our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal can trigger anytime on or after October 1.

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September 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. September (since 1950) is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance since 1950. Performance does improve slightly in election years, but it remains negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 2000 has been able to escape negative territory and post ...

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August 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. August has been the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month of the year since 1988. However, August’s track record in election years since 1950 (DJIA & S&P 500) or 1971 (NASDAQ) is much better. Average election year August performance ranges from 0.7% by DJIA to 3.3% for Russell 2000 (since 1979). This election year could be different since the pandemic ...

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July 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. July is the best month of the third quarter, but bulk of gains are in first half of month. July is historically weaker in election years. NASDAQ’s midyear rally lasts until July 14 this year. July is the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months” and the third month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months.”

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June 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” has already ended. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal can trigger as soon as the close on June 1. June has performed better in Election Years, second best S&P 500 month, #5 DJIA, #4 NASDAQ and Russell 2000.

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May 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. May is the first month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months. Our Seasonal MACD Sell signal has not triggered yet suggesting the rally could continue in the near-term. The history of “Worst Six Months” after a bad “Best Months” is not encouraging. This year’s negative January Barometer and breached December DJIA low, point to possible retest of ...

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April 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is DJIA’s best performing month since 1950, second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). However, April also marks the end of our “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. Our Seasonal MACD Sell signal can occur as early as April 1 but could easily be delayed should the market continue to recover through April ...

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