election

December 2020 Outlook: Yearend Rally Powers Ahead

Stocks have been on the rise since the late-October lows in prototypical market seasonality fashion, though NASDAQ has lagged a bit. Honestly, NASDAQ tech stocks deserve a break, they have carried the market for months now as they have driven and supported the stay-at-home economy. This rotation into the reopening-economy big cap stocks and the new highs in the Russell 2000 small caps, which are more domestic-based firms, is encouraging.

The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is on a ...

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4
DEC
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, losses, MACD, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Tactical Seasonal Switching, wins, Worst Months, year end

Almanac Update December 2020: Small Caps Shine and Santa Visits Wall Street

December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is ...

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4
DEC
2020

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, Christmas, DJIA, election, January Effect, Last Day, NASDAQ, options expiration, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, September, Triple Witching, Vital Stats, Worst Four Months, Worst Six Months

November 2020 Outlook: Best Months Begin With November

November has historically begun the Best Six Months for the Dow and S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months. It has also marked the start of the year’s Best Three-Month Span November-January. Seasonal October volatility was exacerbated by Presidential election uncertainty and the rapid rise of covid-19 cases worldwide. But we believe this is setting up very well for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

Seasonality’s Quarantine Is Over

October’s market weakness and volatility is actually an encouraging sign for us. While it ...

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6
NOV
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, losses, MACD, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Tactical Seasonal Switching, wins, Worst Months, year end

Almanac Update November 2020: Top S&P 500 and DJIA Month in Election Years

November is still maintaining its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into ...

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6
NOV
2020

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, DJIA, election, NASDAQ, options expiration, S&P 500, September, Vital Stats, Worst Four Months, Worst Six Months

October 2020 Outlook: Seasonals Are Back In Style Again

Stock market seasonality has clearly been turned on its head this year. S&P 500 was down -4.1% during the Best Six Months (November-April) from October 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, while it has been up 14.5% so far during the Worst Six Months (May-October) from April 30, 2020 through the close on September 29, 2020. However, with S&P 500 down -4.7% for September to date it appears seasonals are back in style again.

The typical end-of-September weakness is priming a ...

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2
OCT
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, MACD, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Tactical Seasonal Switching, Worst Months

Almanac Update October 2020: Worst Month of Election Year

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second ...

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2
OCT
2020

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, DJIA, election, NASDAQ, options expiration, S&P 500, September, Vital Stats, Worst Four Months, Worst Six Months

September 2020 Outlook: Ripe for a Brief Pause during the March Higher

Reflecting on this historic and crazy year from the breezy climes on the southern end of Long Beach Island, New Jersey we are encouraged by the tale of the tape and the stance of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. Two old market postulates are currently at play: “Don’t fight the tape,” and “Don’t fight the Fed.” In addition we have massive, unprecedented fiscal stimulus with little place to go but into the stock market, particularly U.S. stocks. The Fed’s new ...

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2
SEP
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500

Almanac Update September 2020: Historically Another Challenging Month

Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ (since 1971). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight ...

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2
SEP
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, election, Labor Day, NASDAQ, options expiration, S&P 500, September, Vital Stats

August 2020 Outlook: Pandemic, GDP & Election Jeopardize Rally

In mid-July the market was shrugging off pandemic setbacks, bleak economic and corporate outlooks, geopolitical tensions, civic unrest and a contentious U.S. presidential election battle with NASDAQ hitting a new all-time high and S&P 500 at a new recovery high. In fact we were looking at a classic “Hot July” pattern with DJIA up 4.6% for the month as of the close on July 22.

Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by ...

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4
AUG
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, GDP, NASDAQ, pandemic, Q3, S&P 500, summer doldrums, weekly claims

Almanac Update August 2020: Top Month in Election Years for Tech & Small Caps

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 32 years, 1988-2019 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to ...

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4
AUG
2020

0

Almanac Update

August, bear market, DJIA, election, NASDAQ, options expiration, S&P 500, Vital Stats

Posts Tagged 'election'