Posts Tagged 'rates'

Market Outlook September 2019: Volatility Continues & End Q3 Weakness

Last month we warned that the market was ripe for a seasonal pullback. Within days of our monthly missive late-July and early-August delivered their typical seasonal weakness, of course with a little help from the Fed, yield curve and hot-button geopolitics. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect the market to continue to track the seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns closely as it has all year long.

Our updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid ...

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Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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Market Outlook July 2019: Big June Gains Hazardous for July – Worst 4 Months Prep

As you can see in the accompanying chart the U.S. stock market has been tracking rather close to the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years. As we have pointed out here the past several months, outsized gains are to be expected this year based on the Pre-Election Year pattern illustrated in the chart, especially following our positive January Indicator Trifecta. But we have also warned these gains would not come without pause and correction.

After the third best first-four-month start to ...

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May 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance of 1.9%.

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