Seasonal Research

S&P 500 Up Over 10% First Four Months – Preceded Flat May to late-October

As of yesterday’s close, S&P 500 was up 11.5% year-to-date. Provided these gains hold through the end of April, this year will be just the seventeenth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 has finished the first four months of the year with a gain exceeding 10%. The best January to April span occurred in 1975, up 27.3% (S&P 500 was in the early stages of a new bull market following the bear ending 10/3/1974 in which the S&P 500 ...

Continue Reading →
0

January Barometer: January Trifecta Spoiled by Coronavirus

The market decline on the last day of January spoiled what would have been the fourth consecutive January Trifecta. S&P 500 finished January down 0.2% and thus the January Barometer is negative.

Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered ten major errors since 1950 for an 85.7% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the ten major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 ...

Continue Reading →
0

Strong Starts & Weak Mays: A June Boon

Previous analysis of big gains the first four months indicated weakness was in store for the merry month of May. Now that the market has indeed suffered this May the outlook for June is a boon at least historically speaking.

The table below shows the top 20 first four month gains for the for the S&P 500 with the subsequent changes for May, June, Rest of the Year, “Worst Six Months” May-October, 2nd half July-December and full year performance. While most ...

Continue Reading →
0

Day After Memorial Day Had Been Improving

Our office will be closed for observance of Memorial Day on Monday, May 27. U.S stock and bond markets will also be closed. As you spend some quality time off with family and friends please take time to commemorate those who have paid the ultimate price while serving in the U.S. military.

For decades the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been tracking and monitoring the market’s performance around holidays. The trading day after Memorial Day has a mixed record going back to ...

Continue Reading →
0

Strong Starts Hog Gains for the Year

Big gains the first four months of 2019 have some Wall Street pundits and analysts concerned. While strong starts for the market for the first four months of the year don’t leave much for the rest of the year, it is by no means a negative implication or bearish indication. S&P 500 leads the pack with its 17.5% gain coming in at #3 since 1950. NASDAQ’s 22.0% gain is the 5th best first four month since 1971. DJIA’s 14.0% rise ...

Continue Reading →
0

January Barometer: Trifecta Up 3-For-3 Bullish for 2019

S&P 500 finished the month strong with a 7.9% gain. This is the best S&P January since 1987. This is also the third January Trifecta in a row. Last year the S&P 500 crumbled in the fourth quarter under the weight of triple threats from a hawkish and confusing Fed, a newly divided Congress and the U.S. trade battle with China, finishing in the red. 2017’s Trifecta was followed by a full-year gain of 19.4%, including a February-December gain of ...

Continue Reading →
0

Nasty Thanksgiving Week Does Not Signal Market Demise

Hold on a second. Yes, this was the worst Thanksgiving week for the S&P 500 since 2011 and the 5th worst since 1930. But this does not mean the bull market is over for stocks and there is no upside. Just look at the table below of the S&P 500’s performance following all down Thanksgiving weeks since 1930.

Sure the market was horrible back in the 1930s at the depth of the Depression, but 1933 was up 46.6% following down T-Week ...

Continue Reading →
0

So “Sell in May” Didn’t Work This Year?

Not so fast. The answer is: We don’t know yet, the Worst Six Months (WSM) are not over yet. People forget that Sell in May is NOT the whole seasonality. Our Best and Worst Months Tactical Switching Strategies are based on the Dow’s and S&P’s Best Six Months (BSM) from November through April and the Worst Six Months from May through October, and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months (B8M) from November through June and the Worst Four Months (W4M) from July ...

Continue Reading →
0

Octoberphobia Strikes Again

Okay. Everybody relax. This is normal. This is a standard October seasonal selloff. There is a long and recent history of this sort of October market volatility. Today the market suffered its worst DJIA and S&P day since February 8, 2018 and the worst NASDAQ day by percent since June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit vote.

This is typical October behavior. And like we said last week this is to be expected at the beginning of ...

Continue Reading →
0

Typical September Trading: Another Historically Challenging Month

Although August is the worst month of the year for the market since 1987 (recent 31-year period), September is the worst month going back to 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500. It is also the worst month for NASDAQ since 1971 and the worst for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979. Looking at the full month of September one day at a time, just before mid-month has offered the bulls the best opportunity with the chart exhibiting strength from around ...

Continue Reading →
0
Page 1 of 2 12