Seasonal Research

Nasty Thanksgiving Week Does Not Signal Market Demise

Hold on a second. Yes, this was the worst Thanksgiving week for the S&P 500 since 2011 and the 5th worst since 1930. But this does not mean the bull market is over for stocks and there is no upside. Just look at the table below of the S&P 500’s performance following all down Thanksgiving weeks since 1930.

Sure the market was horrible back in the 1930s at the depth of the Depression, but 1933 was up 46.6% following down T-Week ...

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So “Sell in May” Didn’t Work This Year?

Not so fast. The answer is: We don’t know yet, the Worst Six Months (WSM) are not over yet. People forget that Sell in May is NOT the whole seasonality. Our Best and Worst Months Tactical Switching Strategies are based on the Dow’s and S&P’s Best Six Months (BSM) from November through April and the Worst Six Months from May through October, and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months (B8M) from November through June and the Worst Four Months (W4M) from July ...

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Octoberphobia Strikes Again

Okay. Everybody relax. This is normal. This is a standard October seasonal selloff. There is a long and recent history of this sort of October market volatility. Today the market suffered its worst DJIA and S&P day since February 8, 2018 and the worst NASDAQ day by percent since June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit vote.

This is typical October behavior. And like we said last week this is to be expected at the beginning of ...

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Typical September Trading: Another Historically Challenging Month

Although August is the worst month of the year for the market since 1987 (recent 31-year period), September is the worst month going back to 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500. It is also the worst month for NASDAQ since 1971 and the worst for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979. Looking at the full month of September one day at a time, just before mid-month has offered the bulls the best opportunity with the chart exhibiting strength from around ...

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This Is NOT the Longest Bull Market

Hold the champagne! This is not the longest bull market on record or since WWII as the current buzz on The Street would have you believe. On August 22, 2018 some market analysts will deem this the longest bull market on record having avoided an “official” 20% bear market for 3453 calendar days, surpassing the October 11, 1990 to March 24, 2000 bull market – but we respectfully disagree.

We have tracked bull and bear markets with objectivity for more than ...

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August’s First Trading Day Not So Great

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 (page 86), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2018 Almanac and even after a modestly positive performance last year it is still the last in the upcoming 2019 edition of the Almanac. In the ...

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Flat-Lining Advance/Decline Lines Flash Warning

At the open of trading today all the major indexes were all in positive territory, but by the closing bell only DJIA and S&P 500 remained in the green for the day, up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. NASDAQ finished basically flat on the day after surrounding early-day gains in excess of 1%. Russell 2000 had the toughest day, closing down slightly less than 1.1%. This is a reversal of the trend that existed through much of June and the first ...

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Hot July Market Blazes Past Historical Performance

As of today’s close DJIA is up 3.18% thus far in July. S&P 500 is slightly better at 3.26% while Russell 2000 is up 3.37%. NASDAQ is best up 4.41% with another six trading sessions to go in the month. As you can see in the chart below this is well above average historical July performance at this point of the month over the last 21 years. Early month strength (trading days three, four and five) was substantially greater this ...

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Seasonal Research May 2018: Russell 2000 & Small Caps Best Record Week before Memorial Day Weekend

Over the last 21 years, DJIA has advanced just 47.6% of the time during the week before Memorial Day weekend. Of the five major indices we frequently cite, it is the weakest averaging a 0.29% loss. S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 are better, but average performance over the last 21 years is still just a fractional gain. Russell 2000 has the best track record, up 71.4% of the time with an average gain of 0.42%. Since 2003, Russell 2000 ...

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Seasonal Research April 2018: April’s Option Expiration Week Historically Bullish

April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 36 years on expiration day with an average gain of just under 0.2%. Expiration week as a whole has a slightly more bullish track record over the past 36 years to expiration day. Average weekly gains are 1% or better for S&P ...

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