Posts Tagged 'midterm election'

December 2022 Outlook: Yearend Rally Climbs Wall of Worry

It was encouraging for the S&P 500 to close above the big round 4000 number during the Thanksgiving week. Across-the-board gains in the major averages and sectors were also constructive. We believe reclaiming 4000 and then the 200-day moving average would be supportive. We remain bullish on the yearend rally and the prospect for continuing gains into 2023, but not without concerns for the headwinds the market faces from inflation, Fed rate hikes, geopolitics and further fallout from the crypto ...

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November 2022 Outlook: Welcome to the Sweet Spot

The jury is still out on whether October has killed another bear market. But with the Dow up 11.5% so far in October 2022, it is on pace to record its best October performance ever going back to 1901. While many analysts, technicians and pundits continue their deliberations we lean toward the case that we have entered a new bull market – at least for the near term. Sure, we have concerns and recognize the many headwinds the market faces, ...

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October 2022 Outlook: Bear-Killer and Bargain Month

We coined the term “bear-killer” for October way back in 1968 in the 1969 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the second edition. The original theory from the 1969 Almanac still holds water.

October has been the big bargain month of the post-World War II era. Its chief asset is its enviable position in the calendar. It falls in front of the most bullish three-month span of the year (November, December and January). At this time, volume picks up considerably and there is a ...

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September 2022 Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet

While the folks at the Fed convened their annual symposium in late August at Jackson Lake Lodge in the Wyoming wilderness fishing for answers on the economy and its next policy moves Jeff retreated to the woods and beaches in Ogunquit, Maine. He did not come across any bears on the morning hikes along the Ogunquit River, but the level of tourist activity there was suspiciously slow.

Maine’s popular southern coast is not dead, but the crowds were smaller, wait times ...

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August 2022 Outlook: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

We believe inflation, war, recession fears, aggressive Fed rate hikes, persistent supply chain issues, layoffs, earnings misses, and lingering pandemic issues drove the market into official bear market territory last month. Driven by hopes of a soft landing, a resilient labor market, pockets of positive economic and corporate results, and some rather seriously oversold conditions in big name tech and growth stocks the market has rallied smartly off the June lows.

At the end of July DJIA was up 9.9% from ...

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July 2022 Outlook: Worst Case Scenario in Play No Bottom Yet

Unfortunately, the stock market is delivering on its bearish historical 4-Year Cycle and seasonal tendencies here at the midway point of 2022. It is also playing out the less than sanguine outlook we wrote last year around this time in the 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac (pages 10-11) and in our annual forecast from last December 16. So where do we go from here?

Much to our chagrin, we believe the short answer is that we have likely not ...

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June 2022 Outlook: Short Term Bounce, Midterm Low Later

The bulls had a good week, but the bear market does not appear over to us. When the market rallies and bounces around off bear market lows and commentary runs the gamut from permabear doomsayers to bottom callers it reminds us of the canny words our friend Dan Turov, who runs Turov on Timing, wrote twenty-one years ago this week in Barron’s.

Bear markets don’t act like a medicine ball rolling down a smooth hill. Instead, they behave like a basketball ...

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May 2022 Outlook: Midterm Bottom on the Horizon

The Worst Six Months of the year (May-October) for 2022 commences on the heels of the worst start for the market since 1950. At the end of April, S&P 500 was down 13.3% for the year. The second worst start to the year was 1970, down 11.4% – more on 1970 in a moment. As of the close on April 29, April is down 4.9% for DJIA, 8.8% for S&P 500 and 13.3% for NASDAQ. April being the best month ...

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April 2022 Outlook: War, Inflation & Fed Loom Over End Best Six Months

As we enter the last month of the Best Six Months, the market logged its first down quarter in two years since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to 1930 when our S&P 500 data begins Q1 was positive 55 years and negative 37 times over the 92-year span. Overall, years that advanced in Q1 were up 46 of the 55 years or 83.6% of the time with an average gain of 13.2% for S&P 500. Years when Q1 ...

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March 2022 Outlook: Cold War 2.0 – Bear Lurks – Midterm Bottom Nears

Despite all the warnings and rhetoric from the U.S. et al and Putin’s own words the world still seemed unprepared and shocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that got officially underway at dawn local time February 24, 2022, with the brazen, matter-of-fact speech by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in no uncertain terms threatening the west with historic wrath should they interfere.

Under the auspices of protecting the breakaway regions and his disdain for NATO’s continued eastward expansion toward his borders ...

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