Posts Tagged 'Worst Months'

September 2021 Outlook: End of Q3 Has Been Challenging

Aloha friends. We’ve seen a lot these past two weeks in Hawaii from snorkeling with sea turtles and swimming in waterfalls on Maui to the southernmost point in the U.S. and Kilauea Caldera on the Big Island, then to surfing Hanalei Bay and hiking the Na Pali Coast in Kauai and now Waikiki Beach on Oahu for the last leg of the trip. We will be heading to Pearl Harbor National Memorial and Banzai Pipeline before heading home. We joke ...

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Almanac Update September 2021: Worst Month of Year Over Last 71 Years

Start of the business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school once made September a leading barometer month in the first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). After four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup, S&P 500 was down five ...

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August 2021 Outlook: Rally Primed To Pause in Worst Months

Our outlook for the full year remains clearly bullish, more in line with the best cast scenario of our Annual Forecast in the January 2021 issue. S&P 500 is already up about 17% so far this year at the end of July. Our updated outlook is for S&P 500 to finish the year in the 4500-4600 range or even higher, but we do anticipate the rally to pause over the next 2-3 months during the worst two ...

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Almanac Update August 2021: Challenging Month in Post-Election Years

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 month over the last 33 years, 1988-2020 with average declines ranging from 0.4% by Russell 2000 to 0.8% by ...

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July 2021 Outlook: Midyear Rally Yields To Doldrums Mid-July

The rotation back into tech and growth stocks has picked up momentum on the prospects that recent rampant inflation fears are a bit overblown. The retreat in Treasury bond yields and the more tranquil bond market suggests the spike in prices is more transitory than the extremes some market observers and investors have been suggesting. In turn, NASDAQ’s midyear rally appears to be running ahead of schedule.

We remain in the transitory inflation camp. Sure it will likely ...

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Almanac Update July 2021: Best Month of Post-Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and strong performances in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been ...

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June 2021 Outlook: NASDAQ Best 8 Months Ends – Sideways Summer Trading

Stocks have gone virtually nowhere since Stock Trader’s Almanac April 22 Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell Signal. Trading volume has already begun to slowdown as it tends to do from Memorial Day to Labor Day in what we refer to as the summer doldrums. This reduction in trading volume (page 48, STA 2021) both contributes to and is emblematic of seasonal market weakness during the Worst Six Months May-October (page 147, STA 2021) and the Worst Four Months July-October ...

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Almanac Update June 2021: Second Worst DJIA Month in Post-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...

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May 2021 Outlook: Muted Market Action Anticipated Over Worst Six Months

Seasonality remains back to normal and it appears from all our observations that it will continue to track historical patterns for the remainder of the year. April’s solid returns across the board led by S&P 500 (up 5.2%) and NASDAQ (up 5.4%) and new highs for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ capped off a banner Best Six Months. DJIA is up 27.8%, S&P 500 is up 27.9%, NASDAQ is up 28.0% and the Russell 2000 is up an amazing 47.3% ...

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April 2021 Outlook: Late-March Weakness Sets Up End of Best Six Months Rally

The last month of our “Best Six Months” is now upon us. So it’s the perfect time to provide a refresher for longtime readers and primer for those that have recently joined us. We do not simply “Sell in May and go away.” We employ a more nuanced and subtle approach to how we implement our Best & Worst Months Switching Strategies detailed in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac and on www.stocktradersalmanac.com. We are Continue Reading →

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