Posts Tagged 'midterm'

Almanac Update September 2022: Worst Month Modestly Better in Midterm Years

Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), and Russell 2000 (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. Although September’s overall rank improves modestly in midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–0.8%) and NASDAQ (–0.8%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years. Although September ...

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Almanac Update August 2022: Positive Midterm Record Marred by Sizable Losses

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best DJIA month from 1901 to 1951. Now August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 month over the last 34 years, 1988-2021 with average declines ranging from –0.3% by Russell 2000 to –0.8% by DJIA. For NASDAQ August ranks second worst over the same period with ...

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Almanac Update July 2022: Worst NASDAQ Month in Midterm Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and strong performances in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been ...

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Almanac Update June 2022: Worst DJIA & S&P 500 Month in Midterm Years

Over the last 51 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking fifth best with a 1.0% average gain, up 29 of 51 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well ...

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Almanac Update May 2022: A Challenging Month in Midterm Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,230,865 for November-April in 71 years compared to just $2,693 for May-October (STA 2022, page 54). The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded ...

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Almanac Update April 2022: DJIA Up 16 in a Row

April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for the Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From the Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 8, 2021, through the March 31 close, DJIA is down 0.2% while S&P 500 is up 3.2%. This is below historical average performance due largely to surging inflation, a tightening Fed and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But before the ...

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Almanac Update March 2022: Stronger in Midterm Years

As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a solid performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all advancing more than 62% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.6% by NASDAQ to 1% by S&P 500. Over the recent 21-year period, March has tended to open well with gains accumulating over its first three trading days. Temporary weakness follows before moving modestly higher into mid-month through month’s end.

Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous ...

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Almanac Update February 2022: Historical Performance Improves in Midterm Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; historically tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month ...

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Almanac Update December 2018: Top Month Fueled by Holiday Cheer

December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second-best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. It’s also the second best for NASDAQ (1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback.

Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by ...

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Almanac Update November 2018: First of the “Best Months”

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, ...

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