Posts Tagged 'midterm'

Almanac Update June 2022: Worst DJIA & S&P 500 Month in Midterm Years

Over the last 51 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking fifth best with a 1.0% average gain, up 29 of 51 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well ...

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Almanac Update May 2022: A Challenging Month in Midterm Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,230,865 for November-April in 71 years compared to just $2,693 for May-October (STA 2022, page 54). The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded ...

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Almanac Update April 2022: DJIA Up 16 in a Row

April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for the Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From the Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 8, 2021, through the March 31 close, DJIA is down 0.2% while S&P 500 is up 3.2%. This is below historical average performance due largely to surging inflation, a tightening Fed and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But before the ...

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Almanac Update March 2022: Stronger in Midterm Years

As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a solid performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all advancing more than 62% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.6% by NASDAQ to 1% by S&P 500. Over the recent 21-year period, March has tended to open well with gains accumulating over its first three trading days. Temporary weakness follows before moving modestly higher into mid-month through month’s end.

Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous ...

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Almanac Update February 2022: Historical Performance Improves in Midterm Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; historically tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month ...

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Almanac Update December 2018: Top Month Fueled by Holiday Cheer

December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second-best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. It’s also the second best for NASDAQ (1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback.

Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by ...

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Almanac Update November 2018: First of the “Best Months”

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, ...

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Market Outlook November 2018: Midterm Time Is Bullish

For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October.

The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not ...

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Market Outlook July 2018: June Swoon Indicates Time to Take More Risk Off For Summer

So far our June 21 NASDAQ Best 8 Months Sell Signal has turned out to be rather timely. From our November 28 Buy Signal to our June 21 Sell Signal NASDAQ gained 11.6%. NASDAQ has given back sizeable ground since June 21. The Dow and S&P 500 have been in selloff mode a bit longer since June 13.

We have been getting on the defensive since our May 2 Dow and S&P 500 Best Six Months Sell signal and it now ...

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