Almanac Update February 2022: Historical Performance Improves in Midterm Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; historically tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month ...

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2
FEB
2022

0

Almanac Update

Best & Worst, DJIA, midterm, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, S&P 500, Vital Stats

Almanac Update December 2018: Top Month Fueled by Holiday Cheer

December is the number one S&P 500 month and the second-best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. It’s also the second best for NASDAQ (1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback.

Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by ...

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4
DEC
2018

0

Almanac Update

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, midterm, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally

Almanac Update November 2018: First of the “Best Months”

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, ...

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30
OCT
2018

0

Almanac Update

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, election, midterm, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook November 2018: Midterm Time Is Bullish

For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October.

The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not ...

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30
OCT
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, midterm, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook July 2018: June Swoon Indicates Time to Take More Risk Off For Summer

So far our June 21 NASDAQ Best 8 Months Sell Signal has turned out to be rather timely. From our November 28 Buy Signal to our June 21 Sell Signal NASDAQ gained 11.6%. NASDAQ has given back sizeable ground since June 21. The Dow and S&P 500 have been in selloff mode a bit longer since June 13.

We have been getting on the defensive since our May 2 Dow and S&P 500 Best Six Months Sell signal and it now ...

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3
JUL
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, 4-year cycle, DJIA, midterm, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal

Posts Tagged 'midterm'