Posts Tagged 'Seasonal'

June 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” In all years since 1950, June ranks #11 for DJIA and #9 for S&P 500, but in midterm years like this year, June is the worst month for DJIA and S&P 500 and second worst for NASDAQ. Average losses in midterm-year Junes range from 1.4% by NASDAQ to 1.8% for S&P ...

Continue Reading →
0

June 2022 Outlook: Short Term Bounce, Midterm Low Later

The bulls had a good week, but the bear market does not appear over to us. When the market rallies and bounces around off bear market lows and commentary runs the gamut from permabear doomsayers to bottom callers it reminds us of the canny words our friend Dan Turov, who runs Turov on Timing, wrote twenty-one years ago this week in Barron’s.

Bear markets don’t act like a medicine ball rolling down a smooth hill. Instead, they behave like a basketball ...

Continue Reading →
0

Almanac Update June 2022: Worst DJIA & S&P 500 Month in Midterm Years

Over the last 51 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking fifth best with a 1.0% average gain, up 29 of 51 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well ...

Continue Reading →
0

May 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggered April 7. May is the first month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months,” but NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” lasts through June. Average May gains; DJIA –0.01%, S&P 500 500 0.2% (since 1950), NASDAQ 1.0% (since 1971). In past midterm years average performance has been negative. ...

Continue Reading →
0

May 2022 Outlook: Midterm Bottom on the Horizon

The Worst Six Months of the year (May-October) for 2022 commences on the heels of the worst start for the market since 1950. At the end of April, S&P 500 was down 13.3% for the year. The second worst start to the year was 1970, down 11.4% – more on 1970 in a moment. As of the close on April 29, April is down 4.9% for DJIA, 8.8% for S&P 500 and 13.3% for NASDAQ. April being the best month ...

Continue Reading →
0

April 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month of the year since 1950. Third best month for NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since1979). Average gain in all years ranges from 1.7% by S&P 500 to 2.0% by DJIA. DJIA has been up 16 straight Aprils, 2006 – 2021. Midterm year performance has been softer with average performance sliding ...

Continue Reading →
0

April 2022 Outlook: War, Inflation & Fed Loom Over End Best Six Months

As we enter the last month of the Best Six Months, the market logged its first down quarter in two years since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to 1930 when our S&P 500 data begins Q1 was positive 55 years and negative 37 times over the 92-year span. Overall, years that advanced in Q1 were up 46 of the 55 years or 83.6% of the time with an average gain of 13.2% for S&P 500. Years when Q1 ...

Continue Reading →
0

March 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. March is the fifth month of the Best Six/Eight Months for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Normally a solid month, March has historically been even stronger in midterm years ranking #4 for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950 and #3 for NASDAQ since 1971. Average gains in midterm Marchs range from 1% from DJIA to an impressive 2.7% from Russell ...

Continue Reading →
0

March 2022 Outlook: Cold War 2.0 – Bear Lurks – Midterm Bottom Nears

Despite all the warnings and rhetoric from the U.S. et al and Putin’s own words the world still seemed unprepared and shocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that got officially underway at dawn local time February 24, 2022, with the brazen, matter-of-fact speech by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in no uncertain terms threatening the west with historic wrath should they interfere.

Under the auspices of protecting the breakaway regions and his disdain for NATO’s continued eastward expansion toward his borders ...

Continue Reading →
0

February 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. February is part of the “Best Six Months,” but it is historically the poorest performing month of the six. February ranks #8 for DJIA, #11 S&P 500 and #10 for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 tends to outperform in February most likely due to carry over of the January Effect. Midterm Februarys have historically been better, but still only mid-pack for DJIA ...

Continue Reading →
0
Page 1 of 10 12345...»