Posts Tagged 'Seasonal'

December 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. In ...

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November 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November is the first month of the “Best Months.” November is also the first month of the best three consecutive month span, November through January. Since 1950, November is the best month of the year for S&P 500 and second best for DJIA and NASDAQ. However, November has been weaker in pre-election years.

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Market Outlook November 2019: Best Six Months Underway

Despite scary trading on Halloween spooked by the latest trade and impeachment fears, the market has been rising steadily since our October 11 Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal. Our defensive positions did well while the market gained little ground from our May 1st Sell Signal until our October 11 Buy Signal.

Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above support and logging new highs on the S&P 500, we are likely ...

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Almanac Update September 2019: The Other Worst Month

The start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of the 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. September gets no respite ...

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Almanac Update August 2019: Worst Performing Month of Year Over Last 31 Years

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA. In ...

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Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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