Seasonal:Bullish. March is normally a decent performing market month however post-election year payments to the Piper can take a toll on March as average historical gains are trimmed noticeably. In post-election years March ranks: #8 DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000; NASDAQ is 4th worst with an average loss of 0.2%.
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Seasonal:Mixed. It is the middle of the “Best Months,” but February can be a weak link. In post-election years, February ranks last for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 and #10 for DJIA. Steep losses in February 2001 and 2009 pull average performance deeply negative.
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Seasonal:Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.8%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and fifth for S&P 500 since 1950. Post-election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8% NASDAQ +2.3%), but still positive. ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. December is now the number three S&P 500 and DJIA month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Thursday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. November is the #1 month for S&P 500. It’s also the first month of the “Best Six/Eight Months.” Since 1950, November is #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month in election years. Recent exceptions include November 2000 (undecided election) and 2008 (financial crisis). Keep an eye out for our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal. It can trigger anytime now.
Seasonal:Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 and the last month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months”. In election years, October ranks dead last, but excluding October 2008, ranking improves to mid-pack. Our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal can trigger anytime on or after October 1.
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Seasonal:Bearish. September (since 1950) is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance since 1950. Performance does improve slightly in election years, but it remains negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 2000 has been able to escape negative territory ...
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Seasonal:Neutral. August has been the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month of the year since 1988. However, August’s track record in election years since 1950 (DJIA & S&P 500) or 1971 (NASDAQ) is much better. Average election year August performance ranges from 0.7% by DJIA to 3.3% for Russell 2000 (since 1979). This election year could be different since ...
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July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically ...
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Seasonal:Neutral. July is the best month of the third quarter, but bulk of gains are in first half of month. July is historically weaker in election years. NASDAQ’s midyear rally lasts until July 14 this year. July is the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months” and the third month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months.”