Almanac Update June 2022: Worst DJIA & S&P 500 Month in Midterm Years

Over the last 51 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking fifth best with a 1.0% average gain, up 29 of 51 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well ...

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1
JUN
2022

0

Almanac Update

Best & Worst, DJIA, June, midterm, NASDAQ, options, Russell 2000, S&P 500, Seasonal, Vital Stats

May 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggered April 7. May is the first month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months,” but NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” lasts through June. Average May gains; DJIA –0.01%, S&P 500 500 0.2% (since 1950), NASDAQ 1.0% (since 1971). In past midterm years average performance has been ...

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4
MAY
2022

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, employment, Fed, fundamental, GDP, monetary, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

May 2022 Outlook: Midterm Bottom on the Horizon

The Worst Six Months of the year (May-October) for 2022 commences on the heels of the worst start for the market since 1950. At the end of April, S&P 500 was down 13.3% for the year. The second worst start to the year was 1970, down 11.4% – more on 1970 in a moment. As of the close on April 29, April is down 4.9% for DJIA, 8.8% for S&P 500 and 13.3% for NASDAQ. April being the best month ...

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4
MAY
2022

0

Monthly Outlook

1970, 2022 Forecast, Best Months, Crisis, DJIA, four year cycle, Invasion, midterm election, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, NDX, recession, Russia, S&P 500, Seasonal, sweet spot, Ukraine, weak spot

April 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month of the year since 1950. Third best month for NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since1979). Average gain in all years ranges from 1.7% by S&P 500 to 2.0% by DJIA. DJIA has been up 16 straight Aprils, 2006 – 2021. Midterm year performance has been softer with average performance ...

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4
APR
2022

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, employment, Fed, fundamental, GDP, monetary, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

April 2022 Outlook: War, Inflation & Fed Loom Over End Best Six Months

As we enter the last month of the Best Six Months, the market logged its first down quarter in two years since the beginning of the pandemic. Going back to 1930 when our S&P 500 data begins Q1 was positive 55 years and negative 37 times over the 92-year span. Overall, years that advanced in Q1 were up 46 of the 55 years or 83.6% of the time with an average gain of 13.2% for S&P 500. Years when Q1 ...

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4
APR
2022

0

Monthly Outlook

2022 Forecast, Best Months, Crisis, DJIA, Down Q1, Invasion, midterm election, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, NDX, recession, Russia, S&P 500, Seasonal, Ukraine

March 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. March is the fifth month of the Best Six/Eight Months for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Normally a solid month, March has historically been even stronger in midterm years ranking #4 for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950 and #3 for NASDAQ since 1971. Average gains in midterm Marchs range from 1% from DJIA to an impressive 2.7% from ...

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4
MAR
2022

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, employment, Fed, fundamental, GDP, monetary, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

March 2022 Outlook: Cold War 2.0 – Bear Lurks – Midterm Bottom Nears

Despite all the warnings and rhetoric from the U.S. et al and Putin’s own words the world still seemed unprepared and shocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that got officially underway at dawn local time February 24, 2022, with the brazen, matter-of-fact speech by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in no uncertain terms threatening the west with historic wrath should they interfere.

Under the auspices of protecting the breakaway regions and his disdain for NATO’s continued eastward expansion toward his borders ...

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4
MAR
2022

0

Monthly Outlook

2022 Forecast, Best Months, Crisis, DJIA, First Five Days, Invasion, midterm election, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russia, S&P 500, Seasonal, Ukraine

February 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. February is part of the “Best Six Months,” but it is historically the poorest performing month of the six. February ranks #8 for DJIA, #11 S&P 500 and #10 for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 tends to outperform in February most likely due to carry over of the January Effect. Midterm Februarys have historically been better, but still only mid-pack for ...

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2
FEB
2022

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, employment, Fed, fundamental, GDP, monetary, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

February 2022 Outlook: Heightened Volatility Expected to Continue Through Midterm Elections

In our 2022 Annual Forecast last month we were candid about our less than sanguine outlook for 2022 and that we were expecting a reversion to the mean in annual returns and a decent correction. We shared the many obstacles and hurdles we felt the market would be facing in 2022. First and foremost are the forces of the 4-Year Cycle and the impact the midterm elections have on the market.

Midterm election years are notoriously volatile as the two political ...

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2
FEB
2022

0

Monthly Outlook

2022 Forecast, Best Months, DJIA, employment, Fed, First Five Days, January Barometer, January Indicator Trifecta, midterm election, monetary, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Seasonal, Year-over-year gains

2022 Forecast: Early Year High, Worst Six Months Correction & Q4 Rally

As we laid out in our 2021 Forecast Best Case scenario last year Covid-19 vaccines rolled out rather well in 2021 allowing lockdowns and most restrictions to be removed. Additional fiscal stimulus and an extremely accommodative Fed kept the economy humming and the market rallying. Unemployment dove from the early pandemic peak rather precipitously. Leisure, hospitality and travel did not surge per se, but they sure did rebound. The market is on pace to deliver our Best ...

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4
JAN
2022

0

Monthly Outlook

2022 Forecast, Best Months, DJIA, employment, Fed, First Five Days, four horsemen, January Barometer, January Indicator Trifecta, midterm election, monetary, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Seasonal, Year-over-year gains

Posts Tagged 'Seasonal'

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