Posts Tagged 'Vital Stats'

Almanac Update September 2021: Worst Month of Year Over Last 71 Years

Start of the business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school once made September a leading barometer month in the first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). After four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup, S&P 500 was down five ...

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Almanac Update August 2021: Challenging Month in Post-Election Years

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 month over the last 33 years, 1988-2020 with average declines ranging from 0.4% by Russell 2000 to 0.8% by ...

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Almanac Update July 2021: Best Month of Post-Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and strong performances in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been ...

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Almanac Update June 2021: Second Worst DJIA Month in Post-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...

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Almanac Update May 2021: Stronger in Post-Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $960,943 for November-April in 70 years compared to just $1,656 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $788,997 for November-April ...

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Almanac Update April 2021: Top DJIA Month – Up 15 in a Row

April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on November 5, 2020 through the close on March 25, 2021, DJIA was up 14.9% and S&P 500 had advanced 11.4%. These above average gains are encouraging and suggest seasonality is back on track after getting derailed by Covid-19 last year.

April 1999 was the first month to ...

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Almanac Update March 2021: Softer in Post-Election Years

Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2020, DJIA plunged nearly 4012 points (-17.3%) during the week ending on the 20th.

March packs a rather busy docket. It ...

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Almanac Update February 2021: Historically Weak in Post-Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carryover; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.0% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that ...

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Almanac Update January 2021: An Indicator Trifecta Historically Bullish

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those ...

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Almanac Update December 2020: Small Caps Shine and Santa Visits Wall Street

December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is ...

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