Posts Tagged 'Vital Stats'

Almanac Update October 2020: Worst Month of Election Year

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second ...

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Almanac Update September 2020: Historically Another Challenging Month

Start of business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school made September a leading barometer month in first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ (since 1971). Sizable gains in September 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2017 have lifted Russell 2000 to second worst (since 1979). September was creamed four years straight ...

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Almanac Update August 2020: Top Month in Election Years for Tech & Small Caps

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 32 years, 1988-2019 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to ...

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Almanac Update May 2020: Weaker in Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April ...

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Almanac Update February 2020: Can be Challenging in Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than eighth and has posted meager average gains. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.2% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that benchmark.

A strong February in ...

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