Seasonal:Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.7%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.2% NASDAQ +1.7%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...
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The House of Representatives impeached President Trump December 18, but is holding off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate until they define the rules of engagement for the Senate trial. Meanwhile the stock market rallied to new all-time highs across the board. Senate republican leadership has made it clear they are not on a trajectory to remove the president from office. The market remains sanguine as the likelihood of the president’s removal from office appears low. So we ...
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January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.
DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen ...
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December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best month for NASDAQ since 1971. Last year DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of last year is not that likely. When it does ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. In ...
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The beat rolls on. In the face of ongoing geopolitical and U.S. political volatility, machinations and all the noise, equity markets continue to march higher. While economic growth has slowed underlying strength remains evident. Market internals still have room for improvement with the Advance/Decline positive but not on the same trajectory as the indices and a dearth of new 52-week highs.
If election-cycle politics come into play, we will either get a deal in principle before the December 15 date when new tariffs are supposed to kick in ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bullish. November is the first month of the “Best Months.” November is also the first month of the best three consecutive month span, November through January. Since 1950, November is the best month of the year for S&P 500 and second best for DJIA and NASDAQ. However, November has been weaker in pre-election years.
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Despite scary trading on Halloween spooked by the latest trade and impeachment fears, the market has been rising steadily since our October 11 Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal. Our defensive positions did well while the market gained little ground from our May 1st Sell Signal until our October 11 Buy Signal.
Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above support and logging new highs on the S&P 500, we are likely ...
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November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.
November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during ...
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Seasonal:Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Months” for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. However, in pre-election years since 1951, October is the second worst month of the year.
Psychological:Frothy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey, bulls are ...
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