Almanac Update April 2019: Up Thirteen Years in a Row

The first trading day of April and the second quarter, has enjoyed notable strength over the past 24 years, advancing 17 times with an average gain of 0.37% in all 24 years for S&P 500. However, four of the seven declines have occurred in the last six years. Other declines were in 2001, 2002 and 2005. DJIA’s record on April’s first trading day matches the S&P 500, 17 advances in 24 years. NASDAQ recent performance is slightly weaker than DJIA ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Almanac Update

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, April, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500

Market Outlook April 2019: End Q1 Consolidation Resolves Higher In April

April is the last month of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” of the year. As you can see in the accompanying chart of the “Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns” the major U.S. stock market indices have historically rallied quite sharply through April. Then DJIA in black and S&P 500 in green historically begin to move sideways at the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” (Sell in May) in May and June while NASDAQ in blue continues to run higher ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 2019 Forecast, 4-year cycle, DJIA, Fed, January Barometer, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal, technical

April 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the best DJIA month since 1950, third best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.”

Psychological:

Uneasy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey bulls are at ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

March 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. In March the market tends to perform better in the first half than the second half. In pre-election years March has historically performed better than average with DJIA and NASDAQ ranking climbing to fourth best (S&P 500 is unchanged). Russell 2000 March performance improves to third best.

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8
MAR
2019

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook March 2019: Rally Intact Pausing at Resistance & Seasonal Weak Spots

Since Christmas the market has ripped higher on supportive market internals, still solid overall fundamentals and improving technicals. In line with the Seasonal Market Probability Calendar (graphically represented on page 20 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 in the “February Almanac”) the market succumbed to usual February weakness after the first few days of the month and again around the Presidents’ Day holiday and again today on the usually bearish last trading day of the month.

As you can see in ...

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8
MAR
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, fundamental, NASDAQ, S&P 500, technical

February 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, tend to ...

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6
FEB
2019

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook February 2019: Market Internals Support Rally & Solid 2019 Gains

The Dow posted a 7.2% gain for the month of January – not only its best monthly gain in the past three months, but its best January since 1989. S&P 500 outpaced the Dow with a 7.9% gain for the month – its best January since 1987, scoring our third January Indicator Trifecta in a row. Further details on the bullish implications of the January Indicator Trifecta can be seen here “January Barometer 2019 Official Results.”

NASDAQ stocks ...

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6
FEB
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $^RUT, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 2019 Forecast, 4-year cycle, advance/decline, DJIA, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal

Almanac Update February 2019: Generally a Tepid Month for Large Caps

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is not all that stellar. February ranks no better than seventh and has posted paltry average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the seventh best ...

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6
FEB
2019

0

Almanac Update

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $^RUT, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, February, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500

January 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

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3
JAN
2019

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook January 2019 & Annual Forecast: Santa on Notice from Dueling Grinches – Low Nears – Bear Lurks

Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump have been competing for who can freak the market out most. Our contention for months has been that the Fed is the biggest risk to the market and economy and that surely seems to have come home to roost the past few months and this week.

Last month in our “Market at a Glance” we said that, “After nearly a decade at zero, a brief pause to evaluate the impact of recent hikes does not ...

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3
JAN
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

2019 Forecast, DJIA, Fed, First Five Days, January, January Barometer, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally

Posts Tagged 'NASDAQ'

Seasonal:

Psychological:

Seasonal:

Continue Reading → 8 MAR 2019 0

Seasonal:

Seasonal:

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8
MAR
2019

0