Seasonal:Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” and the second month of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Worst Six Months.” In post-election years, June is second worst for DJIA and third worst for S&P 500. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been stronger with average gains of 0.4% and 1.2% respectively.
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Stocks have gone virtually nowhere since Stock Trader’s Almanac April 22 Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell Signal. Trading volume has already begun to slowdown as it tends to do from Memorial Day to Labor Day in what we refer to as the summer doldrums. This reduction in trading volume (page 48, STA 2021) both contributes to and is emblematic of seasonal market weakness during the Worst Six Months May-October (page 147, STA 2021) and the Worst Four Months July-October ...
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June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...
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May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $960,943 for November-April in 70 years compared to just $1,656 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $788,997 for November-April ...
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Seasonal:Neutral. May is the first month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months.” However, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 strength historically lasts through June. In post-election years, May has been a solid month. DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced in May for nine straight post-election years.
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Seasonality remains back to normal and it appears from all our observations that it will continue to track historical patterns for the remainder of the year. April’s solid returns across the board led by S&P 500 (up 5.2%) and NASDAQ (up 5.4%) and new highs for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ capped off a banner Best Six Months. DJIA is up 27.8%, S&P 500 is up 27.9%, NASDAQ is up 28.0% and the Russell 2000 is up an amazing 47.3% ...
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April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on November 5, 2020 through the close on March 25, 2021, DJIA was up 14.9% and S&P 500 had advanced 11.4%. These above average gains are encouraging and suggest seasonality is back on track after getting derailed by Covid-19 last year.
April 1999 was the first month to ...
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The last month of our “Best Six Months” is now upon us. So it’s the perfect time to provide a refresher for longtime readers and primer for those that have recently joined us. We do not simply “Sell in May and go away.” We employ a more nuanced and subtle approach to how we implement our Best & Worst Months Switching Strategies detailed in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac and on www.stocktradersalmanac.com. We are
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31
MAR
2021
Seasonal:Bullish. April is the last month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months.” It is DJIA’s best month since 1950, second best S&P 500 and fourth for NASDAQ. DJIA has been up 15 Aprils in a row. Remain vigilant as our Seasonal MACD Sell for DJIA and S&P 500 can occur anytime on or after April 1.
Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2020, DJIA plunged nearly 4012 points (-17.3%) during the week ending on the 20th.
March packs a rather busy docket. It ...
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