Posts Tagged 'NASDAQ'

January 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.8%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and fifth for S&P 500 since 1950. Post-election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8% NASDAQ +2.3%), but still positive. The Santa ...

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January 2021 Outlook: Yearend Rally Continues, Seasonal Patterns Endure and 2021 Looks Like A Good Year

Global pandemic was certainly not in our forecast last year and neither was the economic shutdown that came with it. Covid-19 has dramatically changed the world, the economy and the market forever. Some industries are still struggling, while others have adapted and changed. The “stay-at-home” economy stocks, technology in general and biotech industries are having a major impact that has been keeping the economy humming along and the market rallying to new highs.

Our outlook is bullish for next year. Covid ...

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Almanac Update January 2021: An Indicator Trifecta Historically Bullish

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those ...

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December 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number three S&P 500 and DJIA month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Thursday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. In ...

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December 2020 Outlook: Yearend Rally Powers Ahead

Stocks have been on the rise since the late-October lows in prototypical market seasonality fashion, though NASDAQ has lagged a bit. Honestly, NASDAQ tech stocks deserve a break, they have carried the market for months now as they have driven and supported the stay-at-home economy. This rotation into the reopening-economy big cap stocks and the new highs in the Russell 2000 small caps, which are more domestic-based firms, is encouraging.

The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is on a ...

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Almanac Update December 2020: Small Caps Shine and Santa Visits Wall Street

December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is ...

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November 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November is the #1 month for S&P 500. It’s also the first month of the “Best Six/Eight Months.” Since 1950, November is #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month in election years. Recent exceptions include November 2000 (undecided election) and 2008 (financial crisis). Keep an eye out for our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal. It can trigger anytime now.

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November 2020 Outlook: Best Months Begin With November

November has historically begun the Best Six Months for the Dow and S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months. It has also marked the start of the year’s Best Three-Month Span November-January. Seasonal October volatility was exacerbated by Presidential election uncertainty and the rapid rise of covid-19 cases worldwide. But we believe this is setting up very well for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

Seasonality’s Quarantine Is Over

October’s market weakness and volatility is actually an encouraging sign for us. While it ...

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Almanac Update November 2020: Top S&P 500 and DJIA Month in Election Years

November is still maintaining its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into ...

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