Posts Tagged 'Best & Worst'

Almanac Update June 2022: Worst DJIA & S&P 500 Month in Midterm Years

Over the last 51 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking fifth best with a 1.0% average gain, up 29 of 51 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well ...

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Almanac Update May 2022: A Challenging Month in Midterm Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,230,865 for November-April in 71 years compared to just $2,693 for May-October (STA 2022, page 54). The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded ...

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Almanac Update April 2022: DJIA Up 16 in a Row

April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for the Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From the Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 8, 2021, through the March 31 close, DJIA is down 0.2% while S&P 500 is up 3.2%. This is below historical average performance due largely to surging inflation, a tightening Fed and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But before the ...

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Almanac Update March 2022: Stronger in Midterm Years

As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a solid performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all advancing more than 62% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.6% by NASDAQ to 1% by S&P 500. Over the recent 21-year period, March has tended to open well with gains accumulating over its first three trading days. Temporary weakness follows before moving modestly higher into mid-month through month’s end.

Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous ...

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Almanac Update February 2022: Historical Performance Improves in Midterm Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; historically tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month ...

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Almanac Update January 2022: Indicator Trifecta Could Reshape 2022

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen Januarys ...

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