For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October.
The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not ...Continue Reading →
Not so fast. The answer is: We don’t know yet, the Worst Six Months (WSM) are not over yet. People forget that Sell in May is NOT the whole seasonality. Our Best and Worst Months Tactical Switching Strategies are based on the Dow’s and S&P’s Best Six Months (BSM) from November through April and the Worst Six Months from May through October, and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months (B8M) from November through June and the Worst Four Months (W4M) from July ...Continue Reading →
Okay. Everybody relax. This is normal. This is a standard October seasonal selloff. There is a long and recent history of this sort of October market volatility. Today the market suffered its worst DJIA and S&P day since February 8, 2018 and the worst NASDAQ day by percent since June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit vote.
This is typical October behavior. And like we said last week this is to be expected at the beginning of ...Continue Reading →
Historically, the “Worst Six Months” (WSM) of the midterm year has been weaker than WSM in all other years of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle, with Q2-Q3 of the midterm year being the weakest consecutive two-quarter combo of the cycle. August and September have historically been the worst two months of the year, though they rank higher in midterm years, but have still posted average losses in midterm years since 1950.
This has not been the case this year. Despite a ...Continue Reading →
Midterm years are notoriously a rough year for markets as presidents push through their most disruptive policy initiatives and battle the opposition party to retain congressional seats. But the last three midterm years, 2006, 2010 and 2014 have been strong followed by troubled pre-election years. 2007 brought us the major top of the Financial Crisis with the S&P up 3.5%. 2011 suffered a mini-bear from April to October that shaved 19.4% off the S&P, which ended the year down a ...Continue Reading →
Geopolitical concerns over the past few months from snafus and issues at the U.S. southern border over immigration disputes to tough tariff talk and trade war concerns have been shrugged off by the market since the end of June. Positive Q2 earnings, rising GDP growth, sustained unemployment and low rates continue to please the market, sending the market higher in July. This put DJIA up 4.00%, S&P 500 up 3.75% and NASDAQ up 4.40% for the month of July so ...Continue Reading →
So far our June 21 NASDAQ Best 8 Months Sell Signal has turned out to be rather timely. From our November 28 Buy Signal to our June 21 Sell Signal NASDAQ gained 11.6%. NASDAQ has given back sizeable ground since June 21. The Dow and S&P 500 have been in selloff mode a bit longer since June 13.
We have been getting on the defensive since our May 2 Dow and S&P 500 Best Six Months Sell signal and it now ...Continue Reading →