Seasonal Strategies

Almanac Update June 2019: Better in Pre-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 48 years as a rule ranking eighth with a 0.6% average gain, up 26 of 48 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.3%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (–0.02% average).

In pre-election years since 1950, June ranks no better than mid-pack. June is the #8 DJIA month in pre-election years averaging a 0.8% gain with a record of nine advances in seventeen years. For S&P 500, June is #5 with an average gain of 1.2% (10-7 record). Pre-election year June ranks #6 for NASDAQ with an average gain of 1.9%. Recent pre-election year Junes in 2015, 2011 and 2007 were troublesome for the market as DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all declined.

Pre-Election June Mini Table

The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week the Dow has been down thirteen of the last twenty-two years. Triple-Witching Friday is better, up ten of the last sixteen years, but weaker over the past 26 years, up fourteen, down twelve with an average loss of 0.23%. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced Dow losses in 25 of the last 29 years with average losses of 1.09%. NASDAQ has fared better during the week after, but this trend appears to be fading.

June’s first trading day is the Dow’s best day of the month, up 24 of the last 31 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter is a bit of a paradox as the Dow has been down 17 of the last 28 while NASDAQ has nearly the opposite record.

June Vital Stats Table