pandemic

March 2021 Outlook: Frothy Market Succumbs & Looks for Support In March

Unfortunately the February weakness we warned about last issue began to materialize mid-month and accelerated into month-end. The “excuse du jour” is rising bond yields as the 10-Year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. The reaction to the 10-Year yield moving above 1.5% could be a little overblown. It’s barely back to pre-Covid levels. Perhaps it’s more a sign of a healthy economy and rising inflation expectations, which is precisely what the Fed has been trying to foster. We’re not overly concerned ...

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4
MAR
2021

0

Monthly Outlook

10-Year Yield, Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, NDX, pandemic, post-election year seasonal, pullback, Q1, S&P 500, sentiment, technical, Worst Months

February 2021 Outlook: Robinhood Thwarts January Indicator Trifecta, Watch Out For February Weakness

It’s been a dynamic six weeks since we made our Annual Forecast for 2021 and volatility spiked the last week of January as the merry Gen Z traders made on run on the shorts of the old guard on Wall Street. Robinhood Markets and other trading apps and services and online communities used by younger up-and-coming retail traders were able to organize en masse and create an old-fashioned short squeeze. You’ve got to hand it to ...

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8
FEB
2021

0

Monthly Outlook

2021 Annual Forecast, Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, First Five Days, January Barometer, January Trifecta, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Worst Months, year end

January 2021 Outlook: Yearend Rally Continues, Seasonal Patterns Endure and 2021 Looks Like A Good Year

Global pandemic was certainly not in our forecast last year and neither was the economic shutdown that came with it. Covid-19 has dramatically changed the world, the economy and the market forever. Some industries are still struggling, while others have adapted and changed. The “stay-at-home” economy stocks, technology in general and biotech industries are having a major impact that has been keeping the economy humming along and the market rallying to new highs.

Our outlook is bullish for next year. Covid ...

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28
DEC
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, First Five Days, four horsemen, January Barometer, January Effect, January Trifecta, NASDAQ, pandemic, post-election year seasonal, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Worst Months, year end

December 2020 Outlook: Yearend Rally Powers Ahead

Stocks have been on the rise since the late-October lows in prototypical market seasonality fashion, though NASDAQ has lagged a bit. Honestly, NASDAQ tech stocks deserve a break, they have carried the market for months now as they have driven and supported the stay-at-home economy. This rotation into the reopening-economy big cap stocks and the new highs in the Russell 2000 small caps, which are more domestic-based firms, is encouraging.

The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is on a ...

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4
DEC
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, losses, MACD, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Tactical Seasonal Switching, wins, Worst Months, year end

November 2020 Outlook: Best Months Begin With November

November has historically begun the Best Six Months for the Dow and S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months. It has also marked the start of the year’s Best Three-Month Span November-January. Seasonal October volatility was exacerbated by Presidential election uncertainty and the rapid rise of covid-19 cases worldwide. But we believe this is setting up very well for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

Seasonality’s Quarantine Is Over

October’s market weakness and volatility is actually an encouraging sign for us. While it ...

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6
NOV
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, losses, MACD, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Tactical Seasonal Switching, wins, Worst Months, year end

October 2020 Outlook: Seasonals Are Back In Style Again

Stock market seasonality has clearly been turned on its head this year. S&P 500 was down -4.1% during the Best Six Months (November-April) from October 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, while it has been up 14.5% so far during the Worst Six Months (May-October) from April 30, 2020 through the close on September 29, 2020. However, with S&P 500 down -4.7% for September to date it appears seasonals are back in style again.

The typical end-of-September weakness is priming a ...

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2
OCT
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, MACD, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500, Tactical Seasonal Switching, Worst Months

September 2020 Outlook: Ripe for a Brief Pause during the March Higher

Reflecting on this historic and crazy year from the breezy climes on the southern end of Long Beach Island, New Jersey we are encouraged by the tale of the tape and the stance of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. Two old market postulates are currently at play: “Don’t fight the tape,” and “Don’t fight the Fed.” In addition we have massive, unprecedented fiscal stimulus with little place to go but into the stock market, particularly U.S. stocks. The Fed’s new ...

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2
SEP
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, incumbent, NASDAQ, pandemic, S&P 500

August 2020 Outlook: Pandemic, GDP & Election Jeopardize Rally

In mid-July the market was shrugging off pandemic setbacks, bleak economic and corporate outlooks, geopolitical tensions, civic unrest and a contentious U.S. presidential election battle with NASDAQ hitting a new all-time high and S&P 500 at a new recovery high. In fact we were looking at a classic “Hot July” pattern with DJIA up 4.6% for the month as of the close on July 22.

Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by ...

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4
AUG
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

COVID-19, DJIA, election, Election year seasonal pattern, GDP, NASDAQ, pandemic, Q3, S&P 500, summer doldrums, weekly claims

Posts Tagged 'pandemic'