Posts Tagged 'pandemic'

November 2020 Outlook: Best Months Begin With November

November has historically begun the Best Six Months for the Dow and S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months. It has also marked the start of the year’s Best Three-Month Span November-January. Seasonal October volatility was exacerbated by Presidential election uncertainty and the rapid rise of covid-19 cases worldwide. But we believe this is setting up very well for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

Seasonality’s Quarantine Is Over

October’s market weakness and volatility is actually an encouraging sign for us. While it ...

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October 2020 Outlook: Seasonals Are Back In Style Again

Stock market seasonality has clearly been turned on its head this year. S&P 500 was down -4.1% during the Best Six Months (November-April) from October 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, while it has been up 14.5% so far during the Worst Six Months (May-October) from April 30, 2020 through the close on September 29, 2020. However, with S&P 500 down -4.7% for September to date it appears seasonals are back in style again.

The typical end-of-September weakness is priming a ...

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September 2020 Outlook: Ripe for a Brief Pause during the March Higher

Reflecting on this historic and crazy year from the breezy climes on the southern end of Long Beach Island, New Jersey we are encouraged by the tale of the tape and the stance of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. Two old market postulates are currently at play: “Don’t fight the tape,” and “Don’t fight the Fed.” In addition we have massive, unprecedented fiscal stimulus with little place to go but into the stock market, particularly U.S. stocks. The Fed’s new ...

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August 2020 Outlook: Pandemic, GDP & Election Jeopardize Rally

In mid-July the market was shrugging off pandemic setbacks, bleak economic and corporate outlooks, geopolitical tensions, civic unrest and a contentious U.S. presidential election battle with NASDAQ hitting a new all-time high and S&P 500 at a new recovery high. In fact we were looking at a classic “Hot July” pattern with DJIA up 4.6% for the month as of the close on July 22.

Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by ...

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