Posts Tagged 'post-election year'

Almanac Update October 2021: Resist “Octoberphobia”

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst and ...

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Almanac Update September 2021: Worst Month of Year Over Last 71 Years

Start of the business year, end of summer vacations, and back to school once made September a leading barometer month in the first 60 years of 20th century, now portfolio managers back after Labor Day tend to clean house. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1971), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). After four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble buildup, S&P 500 was down five ...

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Almanac Update August 2021: Challenging Month in Post-Election Years

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 month over the last 33 years, 1988-2020 with average declines ranging from 0.4% by Russell 2000 to 0.8% by ...

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Almanac Update July 2021: Best Month of Post-Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and strong performances in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been ...

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Almanac Update June 2021: Second Worst DJIA Month in Post-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...

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Almanac Update May 2021: Stronger in Post-Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $960,943 for November-April in 70 years compared to just $1,656 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $788,997 for November-April ...

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S&P 500 Up Over 10% First Four Months – Preceded Flat May to late-October

As of yesterday’s close, S&P 500 was up 11.5% year-to-date. Provided these gains hold through the end of April, this year will be just the seventeenth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 has finished the first four months of the year with a gain exceeding 10%. The best January to April span occurred in 1975, up 27.3% (S&P 500 was in the early stages of a new bull market following the bear ending 10/3/1974 in which the S&P 500 ...

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Almanac Update April 2021: Top DJIA Month – Up 15 in a Row

April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on November 5, 2020 through the close on March 25, 2021, DJIA was up 14.9% and S&P 500 had advanced 11.4%. These above average gains are encouraging and suggest seasonality is back on track after getting derailed by Covid-19 last year.

April 1999 was the first month to ...

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Almanac Update March 2021: Softer in Post-Election Years

Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2020, DJIA plunged nearly 4012 points (-17.3%) during the week ending on the 20th.

March packs a rather busy docket. It ...

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Almanac Update February 2021: Historically Weak in Post-Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carryover; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.0% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that ...

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