Posts Tagged '$^GSPC'

Almanac Update August 2019: Worst Performing Month of Year Over Last 31 Years

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA. In ...

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Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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Market Outlook July 2019: Big June Gains Hazardous for July – Worst 4 Months Prep

As you can see in the accompanying chart the U.S. stock market has been tracking rather close to the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years. As we have pointed out here the past several months, outsized gains are to be expected this year based on the Pre-Election Year pattern illustrated in the chart, especially following our positive January Indicator Trifecta. But we have also warned these gains would not come without pause and correction.

After the third best first-four-month start to ...

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Almanac Update July 2019: Luke Warm in Pre-Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally ...

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Market Outlook June 2019: May’s Selloffs Yield June Boons

On the heels of one of the strongest January to April starts, May was destined for weakness. But this bodes well for June. May is notoriously weaker in pre-election years, like 2019, and after big starts to the year. The first four months of 2019 were up 17.5% for the S&P 500, the third best since 1950. Following the previous top 20 starts May was down 9 times for an average gain of 0.2%. June is more bullish in general ...

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Almanac Update June 2019: Better in Pre-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 48 years as a rule ranking eighth with a 0.6% average gain, up 26 of 48 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.3%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (–0.02% average).

In pre-election years since 1950, June ranks no better than ...

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Strong Starts & Weak Mays: A June Boon

Previous analysis of big gains the first four months indicated weakness was in store for the merry month of May. Now that the market has indeed suffered this May the outlook for June is a boon at least historically speaking.

The table below shows the top 20 first four month gains for the for the S&P 500 with the subsequent changes for May, June, Rest of the Year, “Worst Six Months” May-October, 2nd half July-December and full year performance. While most ...

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Day After Memorial Day Had Been Improving

Our office will be closed for observance of Memorial Day on Monday, May 27. U.S stock and bond markets will also be closed. As you spend some quality time off with family and friends please take time to commemorate those who have paid the ultimate price while serving in the U.S. military.

For decades the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been tracking and monitoring the market’s performance around holidays. The trading day after Memorial Day has a mixed record going back to ...

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Market Outlook May 2019: Market Prone to Short-Term Weakness in May

After a rough start to the “Best Six Months” with the market falling precipitously in November-December the recovery rally has put DJIA up 5.9%, S&P 500 up 8.6% and NASDAQ up 10.8% for the Best Six Months November-April from the October 31, 2018 close to the April 30, 2019 close. The history of the Best Six/Worst Six Months is impressive, though there have been off periods throughout its history. But now as the Best Six Months has come to a ...

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Strong Starts Hog Gains for the Year

Big gains the first four months of 2019 have some Wall Street pundits and analysts concerned. While strong starts for the market for the first four months of the year don’t leave much for the rest of the year, it is by no means a negative implication or bearish indication. S&P 500 leads the pack with its 17.5% gain coming in at #3 since 1950. NASDAQ’s 22.0% gain is the 5th best first four month since 1971. DJIA’s 14.0% rise ...

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