November 3, 2019
The Wall Street Journal
The strong market in 2019 is what’s expected in the third year of any president’s term, says Jeffrey Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management and Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief. The election will determine the next pattern.
September 27, 2019
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management and Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief, discusses how the markets are shaping up going into what is historically the best-performing period, November through May, but what could also trip stocks up before then.
June 28, 2019
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management and Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief, joins CNBC’s “Power Lunch” team.
May 30, 2019
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management and Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief, joins CNBC’s “Power Lunch” team to give his take on the markets.
October 15, 2018
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management and Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief, takes a historical look at the markets to see what investors might expect for the month of October.
October 11, 2018
CNBC article
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management, gives his take on market volatility and midterm elections.
August 10, 2018
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management, gives his take on the Nasdaq’s record run.
June 29, 2018
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management, says the first trading day in July is traditionally the best of the year.
May 29, 2018
CNBC video
Jeff Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management, talks Italy, and how European market drama might impact your money.
April 2, 2018
ThinkAdvisor, Ginger Szala
This late-stage bull market and business cycle seem to have legs, according to some investment experts. For example, though he believes we are in a mid-to-late bullish cycle, Probabilities Fund Management CEO Joe Childrey sees the market in the middle of a longer-term bull run “as the market climbs the wall of worry.”
May 16, 2018
Fischer Business News
History suggests April could turn out OK for stock-market bulls. That’s the message from the chart above from Stock Trader’s Almanac editor Jeff Hirsch.
May 9, 2018
CNBC Market Alert
Ken Kamen of Mercadien Asset Management and Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac give their take in this video.
May 1, 2018
Legal Gambling, Robert Mills
The month of May has just begun and a lot of investors in the United States have started to worry. One of the reasons for this is because the Stock Trader’s Almanac has recorded a pattern which shows that the month of May usually turned out to be a very mixed month for the major stock indexes. It often leans towards the negative, especially in midterm years – and 2018 is one of those years.
April 30, 2018
Marketwatch, Ryan Vlastelica
“As the market is finally making rally attempt at the end of April, the past month of the ‘Best Six Months’ we are obligated to remind you that the ’Worst Six Months’ are now upon us,” wrote Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive officer of Hirsch Holdings, and editor of the Almanac. “This bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years.”
April 27, 2018
Fox Business, Suzanne O’Halloran
The seasonal summer slowdown is approaching along with the oft used Wall Street phrase, “Sell in May and go away.” And there is an additional layer of worry, notes Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor: Midterm elections. “We are obligated to remind you that the “Worst Six Months” are now upon us, and as we pointed out last month this bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years Opens a New Window.” he writes.
April 2, 2018
ThinkAdvisor, Ginger Szala
This late-stage bull market and business cycle seem to have legs, according to some investment experts. For example, though he believes we are in a mid-to-late bullish cycle, Probabilities Fund Management CEO Joe Childrey sees the market in the middle of a longer-term bull run “as the market climbs the wall of worry.”
March 30, 2018
USA Today, Adam Shell
“Whether or not Friday’s bounce becomes a sustainable rally will largely depend on first-quarter earnings results,” says Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Traders will also be looking for CEOs to deliver upbeat forecasts for the remainder of the year, he adds.
March 29, 2018
CNBC Market Alert
Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch Holdings CEO & Stock Trader’s Almanac editor-in-chief, discusses his market strategy for the recent volatile environment.
March 10, 2018
MarketWatch, William Watts
Friday “is the anniversary of a big low, most definitely,” said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, in an interview. “I don’t think it is the anniversary of the current cyclical bull market, though.”
February 12, 2018
CNBC, Michelle Fox
Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac is still bullish on the year and sees an almost 50 percent chance of the Dow hitting 29,000. “We’ve seen the bottom there … at least for the short term,” he says. Equities rebounded on Monday after suffering their worst weekly performance in two years.
February 5, 2018
TheStreet, Jerry Kronenberg
So, don’t count on me for either bargain hunting or panic selling here; I won’t do either. Neither will Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the ultimate reference book for what markets do over the long term. “We’re sticking to our strategy — one big day isn’t something to make a big change on,” Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and chief market strategist at Probabilities Fund Management LLC, told TheStreet as the Dow tanked.
February 2, 2018
USA Today, Adam Shell
The good start to the year, coupled with past performance history, are the major reasons why Jeffrey Hirsch, the Almanac’s editor, is looking past the recent market turbulence and sticking with his bullish 2018 market call. “My forecast for Dow 29,000 (or a full-year gain of 17%) is still in the cards,” he told USA TODAY.
January 10, 2018
CBS NewYork
“Why January? Well, it’s the first month of the year. This is where people make decisions for the rest of the year,” said Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Hirsch says the outcome of the so-called “January Trifecta” can be pretty accurate in forecasting the year ahead. “The January barometer, as my father invented it in the Almanac in 1972, is the full month performance of the S&P 500. The first five days is an early warning system,” he said. “And also our Santa Clause rally, which is the last five days of the year, last five trading days of the year, and the first of the new year are all three January indicators that we’ve combined over the recent years.”
January 9, 2018
MoneyWatch, Anthony Mirhaydari
With the S&P 500’s gain on Monday, stocks have risen 2.8 percent for the new year, rising in every session so far. According to Jeff Hirsch at the Almanac Trader, this performance — along with the solid run to end 2017 — suggests 2018 will be great for investors. Over the last 39 years, when stocks performed this well, the rest of the year showed gains 87 percent of the time, with an average rise of 14 percent.
January 8, 2018
Money, Paul J. Lin
While no one knows for sure why the first five days matter, market watchers have their guesses. “It’s the first month of the year. It’s when everyone makes their assessment of the year to come, so it’s a reflection of how investors are likely to behave for the year,” says Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the almanac, a book that keeps track of key data points about the market.
January 8, 2018
TheStreet, Jerry Kronenberg
The “S&P 500 First Five Days Indicator” has come in positive for 2018, and Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac says that means there’s now an 83.7% chance that equities will rise for the year as a whole. That’s good news for Wall Street, because stocks historically do poorly in a year that has midterm U.S. congressional elections.
January 8, 2018
USA Today, Adam Shell
“A positive first five days and January would certainly boost prospects for full-year 2018,” noted Jeffrey Hirsch, the Almanac’s editor. The first five days is dubbed an “early warning system,” while the full-month market watch is known as the “January Barometer.”
January 5, 2018
USA Today, Adam Shell
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index posted a 1.1% gain in the seven-session Santa-rally span that ended on Jan. 3. That’s good because a market that declines in that period often means a bear market is coming or stocks will suffer a sizable fall, according to The Stock Trader’s Almanac. The best examples of that downward price momentum continuing was 1999 and 2007, when the Santa rally didn’t materialize and brutal bear markets followed.
January 4, 2018
CNBC, Closing Bell on Dow hitting 25,000
Jeffrey Hirsch, Stock Trader’s Almanac, and CNBC Contributor Ron Insana discuss how much of the market rally can be credited to the Trump Administration.
January 3, 2018
Investopedia, Mark Kolakowski
Kahn also cites several reasons for bearishness on a fundamental level: tax reform is no longer a source of hopeful speculation; North Korea is making new threats; unrest is building in Iran, a major oil producer; and a U.S. government shutdown may be looming. Additionally, to toss in a seasonal pattern, he cites research from Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, indicating that January historically is not a particularly strong month in midterm Congressional election years, as is 2018.
January 2, 2018
Barron’s, Michael Kahn
What’s more, in midterm election years, January is not the strong month it we usually believe it to be, according to Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and chief market strategist at Probabilities Fund Management. When you put the technicals, the geopolitical environment, and seasonal tendencies together, it gives the new year a shaky platform on which to build.
December 30, 2018
Reuters, Sinead Carew
Investors will keep a close watch on the on U.S. mid-term elections in 2018 because a Republican loss of control of the Senate or the House of Representatives could stall the party’s agenda. In 10 of the last 17 U.S. mid-term election years, equity price moves for the full year followed January’s direction, according to Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
October 10, 2017
Hedgeweek
The fund strategy and overall investment philosophy was developed by Joseph Childrey, the firm’s Founder & Chief Investment Officer, and incorporates the principles of behavioural finance and trend following. Other key executives within the firm include: Jonathan Chatfield CFA, Chief Portfolio Manager; Jeffrey Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist; Christopher Mistal, Director of Research, Mary Gray, Chief Operating Officer, Allie Davari, Director of Training and Development, Robert Ausdal, CFA, Partner and Allen Shepard, PhD, Partner.
November 27, 2017
Investopedia, Mark Kolakowski
Jeffrey Hirsch, author of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, has an explanation for the phenomenon of the Santa Claus rally, as reported by FINRA. He finds that individual investors become less active traders during this period, while professional traders and money managers are eager to pick up bargains among beaten-down stocks.
April 14, 2015
Benzinga
Joseph Childrey developed an investment philosophy that incorporates the principles of behavioral finance and trend following. He launched and managed the Probabilities Fund L.P., a long/short hedge fund, for six years before converting the fund to a mutual fund. Childrey served private and institutional clients at Wells Fargo/AG Edwards for 15 years, starting his career at PaineWebber. An inventor, Childrey co-invented with Jon Jewitt a patented product in the consumer electronics industry that is marketed and sold worldwide.
May 21, 2015
HedgeCo.Net
Joseph Childrey is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer for Probabilities Fund Management, and we recently had the pleasure of sitting down with him to get a deeper understanding of the strategy they use.
July 20, 2013
OpalesqueTV
Joseph (Joe) B Childrey is Founder & CIO of Probabilities Fund Management, LLC. The firm provides investment management for the Probabilities Fund, LP, a hedge fund, and for the substantially similar Probabilities VIT Fund, a (1940 Act) fund offered in various variable annuities. The VIT fund is available to variable annuity and life contracts and participants in pension and retirement plans.
