Posts Tagged 'fundamental'

Market Outlook March 2019: Rally Intact Pausing at Resistance & Seasonal Weak Spots

Since Christmas the market has ripped higher on supportive market internals, still solid overall fundamentals and improving technicals. In line with the Seasonal Market Probability Calendar (graphically represented on page 20 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 in the “February Almanac”) the market succumbed to usual February weakness after the first few days of the month and again around the Presidents’ Day holiday and again today on the usually bearish last trading day of the month.

As you can see in ...

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February 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, tend to ...

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January 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

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