Posts Tagged 'Fed'

January 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.7%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.2% NASDAQ +1.7%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

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Market Outlook January 2020: Market Sanguine on Impeachment & Sitting President Running

The House of Representatives impeached President Trump December 18, but is holding off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate until they define the rules of engagement for the Senate trial. Meanwhile the stock market rallied to new all-time highs across the board. Senate republican leadership has made it clear they are not on a trajectory to remove the president from office. The market remains sanguine as the likelihood of the president’s removal from office appears low. So we ...

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December 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. In ...

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November 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November is the first month of the “Best Months.” November is also the first month of the best three consecutive month span, November through January. Since 1950, November is the best month of the year for S&P 500 and second best for DJIA and NASDAQ. However, November has been weaker in pre-election years.

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Market Outlook November 2019: Best Six Months Underway

Despite scary trading on Halloween spooked by the latest trade and impeachment fears, the market has been rising steadily since our October 11 Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal. Our defensive positions did well while the market gained little ground from our May 1st Sell Signal until our October 11 Buy Signal.

Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above support and logging new highs on the S&P 500, we are likely ...

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Market Outlook September 2019: Volatility Continues & End Q3 Weakness

Last month we warned that the market was ripe for a seasonal pullback. Within days of our monthly missive late-July and early-August delivered their typical seasonal weakness, of course with a little help from the Fed, yield curve and hot-button geopolitics. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect the market to continue to track the seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns closely as it has all year long.

Our updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid ...

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Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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