Posts Tagged 'Fed'

September 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. September is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 month of the year by average performance. Average declines range from –0.5% to –0.7%. Midterm-year Septembers have been mixed notwithstanding a modest improvement in rank. DJIA has declined in 11 of the last 18 midterm-year Septembers. End-of-quarter window dressing and rebalancing has contributed to some nasty, late-September selloffs.

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July 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. July has been the strongest month of the third quarter. Midterm-year Julys have a mixed record ranking #3 for DJIA and #5 S&P 500, but for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 July is the worst month in midterm years. NASDAQ’s seasonal midyear rally ends on or around July 14. Early July gains tend to fizzle after mid-month. July is the first ...

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June 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” In all years since 1950, June ranks #11 for DJIA and #9 for S&P 500, but in midterm years like this year, June is the worst month for DJIA and S&P 500 and second worst for NASDAQ. Average losses in midterm-year Junes range from 1.4% by NASDAQ to 1.8% for ...

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May 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. Stock Trader’s Almanac Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggered April 7. May is the first month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months,” but NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” lasts through June. Average May gains; DJIA –0.01%, S&P 500 500 0.2% (since 1950), NASDAQ 1.0% (since 1971). In past midterm years average performance has been negative. ...

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April 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the #1 DJIA and S&P 500 month of the year since 1950. Third best month for NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 2000 (since1979). Average gain in all years ranges from 1.7% by S&P 500 to 2.0% by DJIA. DJIA has been up 16 straight Aprils, 2006 – 2021. Midterm year performance has been softer with average performance sliding ...

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March 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. March is the fifth month of the Best Six/Eight Months for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Normally a solid month, March has historically been even stronger in midterm years ranking #4 for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950 and #3 for NASDAQ since 1971. Average gains in midterm Marchs range from 1% from DJIA to an impressive 2.7% from Russell ...

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February 2022 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. February is part of the “Best Six Months,” but it is historically the poorest performing month of the six. February ranks #8 for DJIA, #11 S&P 500 and #10 for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 tends to outperform in February most likely due to carry over of the January Effect. Midterm Februarys have historically been better, but still only mid-pack for DJIA ...

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February 2022 Outlook: Heightened Volatility Expected to Continue Through Midterm Elections

In our 2022 Annual Forecast last month we were candid about our less than sanguine outlook for 2022 and that we were expecting a reversion to the mean in annual returns and a decent correction. We shared the many obstacles and hurdles we felt the market would be facing in 2022. First and foremost are the forces of the 4-Year Cycle and the impact the midterm elections have on the market.

Midterm election years are notoriously volatile as the two political ...

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2022 Forecast: Early Year High, Worst Six Months Correction & Q4 Rally

As we laid out in our 2021 Forecast Best Case scenario last year Covid-19 vaccines rolled out rather well in 2021 allowing lockdowns and most restrictions to be removed. Additional fiscal stimulus and an extremely accommodative Fed kept the economy humming and the market rallying. Unemployment dove from the early pandemic peak rather precipitously. Leisure, hospitality and travel did not surge per se, but they sure did rebound. The market is on pace to deliver our Best ...

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