Posts Tagged 'Fed'

May 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance of 1.9%.

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Market Outlook April 2019: End Q1 Consolidation Resolves Higher In April

April is the last month of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” of the year. As you can see in the accompanying chart of the “Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns” the major U.S. stock market indices have historically rallied quite sharply through April. Then DJIA in black and S&P 500 in green historically begin to move sideways at the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” (Sell in May) in May and June while NASDAQ in blue continues to run higher ...

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Almanac Update March 2019: Even Better in Pre-Election Years

Turbulent March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-13.5%) from March 9 to the 22.

March packs a rather busy docket. It is the ...

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February 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, tend to ...

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January 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

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Market Outlook January 2019 & Annual Forecast: Santa on Notice from Dueling Grinches – Low Nears – Bear Lurks

Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump have been competing for who can freak the market out most. Our contention for months has been that the Fed is the biggest risk to the market and economy and that surely seems to have come home to roost the past few months and this week.

Last month in our “Market at a Glance” we said that, “After nearly a decade at zero, a brief pause to evaluate the impact of recent hikes does not ...

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December 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is the number one S&P 500 (+1.6%) month and second best for DJIA (+1.7%) and NASDAQ (1.8% since 1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Monday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. S&P has averaged gains of 1.3% ...

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