Market Outlook January 2020: Market Sanguine on Impeachment & Sitting President Running

The House of Representatives impeached President Trump December 18, but is holding off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate until they define the rules of engagement for the Senate trial. Meanwhile the stock market rallied to new all-time highs across the board. Senate republican leadership has made it clear they are not on a trajectory to remove the president from office. The market remains sanguine as the likelihood of the president’s removal from office appears low. So we ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

2020 election, 2020 forecast, CPI, DJIA, Fed, January, January Barometer, NASDAQ, PPI, S&P 500, sitting president

December 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. ...

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25
NOV
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, QE4, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

November 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November is the first month of the “Best Months.” November is also the first month of the best three consecutive month span, November through January. Since 1950, November is the best month of the year for S&P 500 and second best for DJIA and NASDAQ. However, November has been weaker in pre-election years.

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4
NOV
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook November 2019: Best Six Months Underway

Despite scary trading on Halloween spooked by the latest trade and impeachment fears, the market has been rising steadily since our October 11 Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal. Our defensive positions did well while the market gained little ground from our May 1st Sell Signal until our October 11 Buy Signal.

Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above support and logging new highs on the S&P 500, we are likely ...

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4
NOV
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

A/D Lines, best three, Bullish, DJIA, Fed, Fed put, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500, Seasonal

October 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Months” for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. However, in pre-election years since 1951, October is the second worst month of the year.

Psychological:

Frothy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors ...

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30
SEP
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

September 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). In pre-election years, rankings are unchanged while average losses expand.

Psychological:

Fading. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey, ...

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6
SEP
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook September 2019: Volatility Continues & End Q3 Weakness

Last month we warned that the market was ripe for a seasonal pullback. Within days of our monthly missive late-July and early-August delivered their typical seasonal weakness, of course with a little help from the Fed, yield curve and hot-button geopolitics. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect the market to continue to track the seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns closely as it has all year long.

Our updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid ...

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6
SEP
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

DJIA, down friday/down monday, Fed, NASDAQ, outlook, pattern, pre-election year, rates, resistance, S&P 500, September, support

Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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31
JUL
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, 2020 election, 4-year cycle, DJIA, election, Fed, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal

August 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. August is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018, with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA. In pre-election years, August has been better with modest average gains.

Psychological:

Complacent. ...

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31
JUL
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

July 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Turning Bearish. July is the best month of the third quarter, but performance in pre-election years has been uninspiring. First half of July likely to be better than second half. NASDAQ’s midyear rally ends on the ninth trading day and July is the beginning of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months.”

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2
JUL
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Posts Tagged 'Fed'

Seasonal:

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4
NOV
2019

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2
JUL
2019

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