Posts Tagged 'QE4'

July 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. July is the best month of the third quarter, but bulk of gains are in first half of month. July is historically weaker in election years. NASDAQ’s midyear rally lasts until July 14 this year. July is the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months” and the third month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months.”

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June 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” has already ended. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal can trigger as soon as the close on June 1. June has performed better in Election Years, second best S&P 500 month, #5 DJIA, #4 NASDAQ and Russell 2000.

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May 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. May is the first month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months. Our Seasonal MACD Sell signal has not triggered yet suggesting the rally could continue in the near-term. The history of “Worst Six Months” after a bad “Best Months” is not encouraging. This year’s negative January Barometer and breached December DJIA low, point to possible retest of ...

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April 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is DJIA’s best performing month since 1950, second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). However, April also marks the end of our “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. Our Seasonal MACD Sell signal can occur as early as April 1 but could easily be delayed should the market continue to recover through April ...

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March 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. Normally a decent performing market month, March is above average in election years with advances 64.7% of the time with a 1.0% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 64.7% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 1.2%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since 1972 mainly ...

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January 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.7%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.2% NASDAQ +1.7%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on January ...

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December 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. In ...

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