Posts Tagged 'midterm low'

September 2022 Outlook: Not Out of the Woods Yet

While the folks at the Fed convened their annual symposium in late August at Jackson Lake Lodge in the Wyoming wilderness fishing for answers on the economy and its next policy moves Jeff retreated to the woods and beaches in Ogunquit, Maine. He did not come across any bears on the morning hikes along the Ogunquit River, but the level of tourist activity there was suspiciously slow.

Maine’s popular southern coast is not dead, but the crowds were smaller, wait times ...

Continue Reading →
0

August 2022 Outlook: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

We believe inflation, war, recession fears, aggressive Fed rate hikes, persistent supply chain issues, layoffs, earnings misses, and lingering pandemic issues drove the market into official bear market territory last month. Driven by hopes of a soft landing, a resilient labor market, pockets of positive economic and corporate results, and some rather seriously oversold conditions in big name tech and growth stocks the market has rallied smartly off the June lows.

At the end of July DJIA was up 9.9% from ...

Continue Reading →
0

July 2022 Outlook: Worst Case Scenario in Play No Bottom Yet

Unfortunately, the stock market is delivering on its bearish historical 4-Year Cycle and seasonal tendencies here at the midway point of 2022. It is also playing out the less than sanguine outlook we wrote last year around this time in the 2022 Stock Trader’s Almanac (pages 10-11) and in our annual forecast from last December 16. So where do we go from here?

Much to our chagrin, we believe the short answer is that we have likely not ...

Continue Reading →
0

June 2022 Outlook: Short Term Bounce, Midterm Low Later

The bulls had a good week, but the bear market does not appear over to us. When the market rallies and bounces around off bear market lows and commentary runs the gamut from permabear doomsayers to bottom callers it reminds us of the canny words our friend Dan Turov, who runs Turov on Timing, wrote twenty-one years ago this week in Barron’s.

Bear markets don’t act like a medicine ball rolling down a smooth hill. Instead, they behave like a basketball ...

Continue Reading →
0