Posts Tagged 'Worst Months'

July 2021 Outlook: Midyear Rally Yields To Doldrums Mid-July

The rotation back into tech and growth stocks has picked up momentum on the prospects that recent rampant inflation fears are a bit overblown. The retreat in Treasury bond yields and the more tranquil bond market suggests the spike in prices is more transitory than the extremes some market observers and investors have been suggesting. In turn, NASDAQ’s midyear rally appears to be running ahead of schedule.

We remain in the transitory inflation camp. Sure it will likely ...

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Almanac Update July 2021: Best Month of Post-Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and strong performances in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.3% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been ...

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June 2021 Outlook: NASDAQ Best 8 Months Ends – Sideways Summer Trading

Stocks have gone virtually nowhere since Stock Trader’s Almanac April 22 Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell Signal. Trading volume has already begun to slowdown as it tends to do from Memorial Day to Labor Day in what we refer to as the summer doldrums. This reduction in trading volume (page 48, STA 2021) both contributes to and is emblematic of seasonal market weakness during the Worst Six Months May-October (page 147, STA 2021) and the Worst Four Months July-October ...

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Almanac Update June 2021: Second Worst DJIA Month in Post-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...

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May 2021 Outlook: Muted Market Action Anticipated Over Worst Six Months

Seasonality remains back to normal and it appears from all our observations that it will continue to track historical patterns for the remainder of the year. April’s solid returns across the board led by S&P 500 (up 5.2%) and NASDAQ (up 5.4%) and new highs for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ capped off a banner Best Six Months. DJIA is up 27.8%, S&P 500 is up 27.9%, NASDAQ is up 28.0% and the Russell 2000 is up an amazing 47.3% ...

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April 2021 Outlook: Late-March Weakness Sets Up End of Best Six Months Rally

The last month of our “Best Six Months” is now upon us. So it’s the perfect time to provide a refresher for longtime readers and primer for those that have recently joined us. We do not simply “Sell in May and go away.” We employ a more nuanced and subtle approach to how we implement our Best & Worst Months Switching Strategies detailed in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac and on www.stocktradersalmanac.com. We are Continue Reading →

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March 2021 Outlook: Frothy Market Succumbs & Looks for Support In March

Unfortunately the February weakness we warned about last issue began to materialize mid-month and accelerated into month-end. The “excuse du jour” is rising bond yields as the 10-Year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. The reaction to the 10-Year yield moving above 1.5% could be a little overblown. It’s barely back to pre-Covid levels. Perhaps it’s more a sign of a healthy economy and rising inflation expectations, which is precisely what the Fed has been trying to foster. We’re not overly concerned ...

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February 2021 Outlook: Robinhood Thwarts January Indicator Trifecta, Watch Out For February Weakness

It’s been a dynamic six weeks since we made our Annual Forecast for 2021 and volatility spiked the last week of January as the merry Gen Z traders made on run on the shorts of the old guard on Wall Street. Robinhood Markets and other trading apps and services and online communities used by younger up-and-coming retail traders were able to organize en masse and create an old-fashioned short squeeze. You’ve got to hand it to ...

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January 2021 Outlook: Yearend Rally Continues, Seasonal Patterns Endure and 2021 Looks Like A Good Year

Global pandemic was certainly not in our forecast last year and neither was the economic shutdown that came with it. Covid-19 has dramatically changed the world, the economy and the market forever. Some industries are still struggling, while others have adapted and changed. The “stay-at-home” economy stocks, technology in general and biotech industries are having a major impact that has been keeping the economy humming along and the market rallying to new highs.

Our outlook is bullish for next year. Covid ...

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December 2020 Outlook: Yearend Rally Powers Ahead

Stocks have been on the rise since the late-October lows in prototypical market seasonality fashion, though NASDAQ has lagged a bit. Honestly, NASDAQ tech stocks deserve a break, they have carried the market for months now as they have driven and supported the stay-at-home economy. This rotation into the reopening-economy big cap stocks and the new highs in the Russell 2000 small caps, which are more domestic-based firms, is encouraging.

The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is on a ...

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