Posts Tagged 'coronavirus'

April 2020 Outlook: Beware the Bear Market Bounce

The Dow’s 6.4% rally on March 26 capped the biggest three-day surge since October 6-8, 1931. That may sound encouraging, but remember 1931 was the worst year for DJIA on record, down 52.7%. DJIA jumped 21.3% from the low on Monday March 23. This surge came on the heels of the fastest and most furious decline in stock market history. DJIA dropped 37.1% from its 2/12/2020 all-time high in 40 calendar days. It fell 35.9% in 31 days from the ...

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March 2020 Outlook: Coronavirus Fears Grip Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point loss on February 27. The market was down all day, but fluctuated dramatically with the headlines. Widespread selling pushed the market into correction territory with the Dow down 12.8% from its February 12 all-time high as of the close on February 27. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 12.0% and 12.7% from their respective February 19 all-time highs.

At 8 calendars days long (6 trading days), this is the fastest 10% ...

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Market Outlook February 2020: Any Market Pause Likely Short-Lived

February is notoriously the weak link in “Best Six Months” so we expect the big run the market has been on since mid-October to at least take a breather in February as it often does to consolidate January gains and the gains over the first half of the “Best Six Months.” The market is also digesting a copious and volatile news flow, still elevated valuations and some consolidating technical readings.

Since our October 11, 2019 “Best Six/Eight Months” buy signal, as ...

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January Barometer: January Trifecta Spoiled by Coronavirus

The market decline on the last day of January spoiled what would have been the fourth consecutive January Trifecta. S&P 500 finished January down 0.2% and thus the January Barometer is negative.

Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered ten major errors since 1950 for an 85.7% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the ten major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 ...

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