Monthly Outlook

Market Outlook October 2018: Midterm October Launching Pad

Historically, the “Worst Six Months” (WSM) of the midterm year has been weaker than WSM in all other years of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle, with Q2-Q3 of the midterm year being the weakest consecutive two-quarter combo of the cycle. August and September have historically been the worst two months of the year, though they rank higher in midterm years, but have still posted average losses in midterm years since 1950.

This has not been the case this year. Despite a ...

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1
OCT
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, advance/decline, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment

Market Outlook September 2018: Tumultuous Month Often Bucks Bulls Off Easy Ride

Midterm years are notoriously a rough year for markets as presidents push through their most disruptive policy initiatives and battle the opposition party to retain congressional seats. But the last three midterm years, 2006, 2010 and 2014 have been strong followed by troubled pre-election years. 2007 brought us the major top of the Financial Crisis with the S&P up 3.5%. 2011 suffered a mini-bear from April to October that shaved 19.4% off the S&P, which ended the year down a ...

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31
AUG
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook August 2018: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

Geopolitical concerns over the past few months from snafus and issues at the U.S. southern border over immigration disputes to tough tariff talk and trade war concerns have been shrugged off by the market since the end of June. Positive Q2 earnings, rising GDP growth, sustained unemployment and low rates continue to please the market, sending the market higher in July. This put DJIA up 4.00%, S&P 500 up 3.75% and NASDAQ up 4.40% for the month of July so ...

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31
JUL
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook July 2018: June Swoon Indicates Time to Take More Risk Off For Summer

So far our June 21 NASDAQ Best 8 Months Sell Signal has turned out to be rather timely. From our November 28 Buy Signal to our June 21 Sell Signal NASDAQ gained 11.6%. NASDAQ has given back sizeable ground since June 21. The Dow and S&P 500 have been in selloff mode a bit longer since June 13.

We have been getting on the defensive since our May 2 Dow and S&P 500 Best Six Months Sell signal and it now ...

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3
JUL
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, 4-year cycle, DJIA, midterm, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook June 2018: Best 8 Months End, Midterm Machinations Suggest Rough Summer for Stocks

To all the market seasonality naysayers and “Sell in May” or Best Six Months/Worst Six Months critics, we say thank you for your skepticism. Despite your disbelief (and perhaps because of it) the recurring seasonal market patterns highlighted in the Stock Trader’s Almanac continue to persist. Of course they are not perfect and do not work 100% of the time, and some have fallen by the wayside and some have shifted – we’ve tracked and updated those.

However, supported by a ...

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8
JUN
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, Congress, DJIA, Seasonal, sentiment

Market Outlook May 2018: Worst Six Months, Crueler In Midterm Years, Begins

As the market is finally making a rally attempt at the end of April, the last month of the Best Six Months” we are obligated to remind you that the “Worst Six Months” are now upon us, and as we pointed out last month this bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years.

For the near term over the next several weeks the rally may have some legs. But as we get into the summer doldrums ...

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10
MAY
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500

Market Outlook April 2018: Brief Respite Before Worst Six Months & Midterm Bottom Pickers Paradise

Holiday inspired trading before the Good Friday holiday market closing helped trim losses for the month of March and Q1 2018. NASDAQ Composite’s 2.3% gain for the first quarter of 2018 was a bright spot. So while there is much negativity on the news and in market action this year, I wanted to point out some positives and encourage patience through what promises to be a tumultuous ride over the next several months as the market and economy search for ...

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20
APR
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

Market Outlook March 2018: Still Bullish — Correction Brings Market and Valuations Back Inline

The return of volatility over the past four weeks has been quite a reality check for the market and its participants. However, it has not shaken our resolve and our bullish outlook for 2018. Economic data and forecasts remain robust, but improving economic conditions are a double-edged sword for the market.

Historically stocks tend to struggle in rising rate environments, but these levels are still well below historical averages for the 10- Year Treasury yield and below the lower end for ...

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25
MAR
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

Market Outlook February 2018: Bullish 2018 Forecast on Track, January Trifecta In Play

Incoming economic and corporate data readings along with the positive reception to the new tax law on Wall Street and in boardrooms across the country have conspired to keep my more bullish 2018 forecast scenarios from last month on track. Positive readings from the first two legs of my January Indicator Trifecta lend further support to our positive outlook for 2018. However, many have latched onto the notion that due to the fact that the market is off to its ...

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9
FEB
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, NASDAQ

2018 Forecast: Healthy Economy, Strong Market & New Tax Law Bullish – DJIA 29,000 in the Cards

We’ve been digging and searching for indications that this market is running out of steam and we are headed for some sort of major correction, sizeable pullback or a bear market next year, but we have been hard-pressed to find any such data. Sure valuations and sentiment are rather high, but we all know that situation can go on for longer than most bearish investors can stay short or on the sidelines. A growing economy with increasing corporate earnings can ...

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12
JAN
2018

0

Monthly Outlook