Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggered on May 13 when this recovery rally took a brief pause. The rally then resumed adding to May’s gains and putting NASDAQ back in the black for the year and up 5.8% year-to-date on the close of May. But the market is bumping into some resistance here technically and looks set to pause again and pullback to recent support levels.
Despite the selloff on the last day of April, the Best Six Months ended on a positive note, registering the best month in decades and the best April since the Great Depression. We have been tracking our Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 since April 1. The slower MACD Sell indicator turned positive March 26 and remains in an uptrend and has not issued a new sell signal yet. At this point it would ...
Continue Reading →
The Dow’s 6.4% rally on March 26 capped the biggest three-day surge since October 6-8, 1931. That may sound encouraging, but remember 1931 was the worst year for DJIA on record, down 52.7%. DJIA jumped 21.3% from the low on Monday March 23. This surge came on the heels of the fastest and most furious decline in stock market history. DJIA dropped 37.1% from its 2/12/2020 all-time high in 40 calendar days. It fell 35.9% in 31 days from the ...
Continue Reading →
The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point loss on February 27. The market was down all day, but fluctuated dramatically with the headlines. Widespread selling pushed the market into correction territory with the Dow down 12.8% from its February 12 all-time high as of the close on February 27. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 12.0% and 12.7% from their respective February 19 all-time highs.
At 8 calendars days long (6 trading days), this is the fastest 10% ...
Continue Reading →
February is notoriously the weak link in “Best Six Months” so we expect the big run the market has been on since mid-October to at least take a breather in February as it often does to consolidate January gains and the gains over the first half of the “Best Six Months.” The market is also digesting a copious and volatile news flow, still elevated valuations and some consolidating technical readings.
Since our October 11, 2019 “Best Six/Eight Months” buy signal, as ...
Continue Reading →
The House of Representatives impeached President Trump December 18, but is holding off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate until they define the rules of engagement for the Senate trial. Meanwhile the stock market rallied to new all-time highs across the board. Senate republican leadership has made it clear they are not on a trajectory to remove the president from office. The market remains sanguine as the likelihood of the president’s removal from office appears low. So we ...
Continue Reading →
The beat rolls on. In the face of ongoing geopolitical and U.S. political volatility, machinations and all the noise, equity markets continue to march higher. While economic growth has slowed underlying strength remains evident. Market internals still have room for improvement with the Advance/Decline positive but not on the same trajectory as the indices and a dearth of new 52-week highs.
If election-cycle politics come into play, we will either get a deal in principle before the December 15 date when new tariffs are supposed to kick in ...
Continue Reading →
Despite scary trading on Halloween spooked by the latest trade and impeachment fears, the market has been rising steadily since our October 11 Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal. Our defensive positions did well while the market gained little ground from our May 1st Sell Signal until our October 11 Buy Signal.
Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above support and logging new highs on the S&P 500, we are likely ...
Continue Reading →
Amid all the news and noise U.S. financial markets continue to track the seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns closely as they has all year long. Our strategy that employs and utilizes seasonality is outperforming the market.
Amazingly, 2019 market price action continues to track the historical trend and pattern as you can see in the updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid with 2019. On cue stocks paused at resistance below the highs in the third week of ...
Continue Reading →
Last month we warned that the market was ripe for a seasonal pullback. Within days of our monthly missive late-July and early-August delivered their typical seasonal weakness, of course with a little help from the Fed, yield curve and hot-button geopolitics. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect the market to continue to track the seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns closely as it has all year long.
Our updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid ...
Continue Reading →