Monthly Outlook

December 2020 Outlook: Yearend Rally Powers Ahead

Stocks have been on the rise since the late-October lows in prototypical market seasonality fashion, though NASDAQ has lagged a bit. Honestly, NASDAQ tech stocks deserve a break, they have carried the market for months now as they have driven and supported the stay-at-home economy. This rotation into the reopening-economy big cap stocks and the new highs in the Russell 2000 small caps, which are more domestic-based firms, is encouraging.

The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is on a ...

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November 2020 Outlook: Best Months Begin With November

November has historically begun the Best Six Months for the Dow and S&P 500 and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months. It has also marked the start of the year’s Best Three-Month Span November-January. Seasonal October volatility was exacerbated by Presidential election uncertainty and the rapid rise of covid-19 cases worldwide. But we believe this is setting up very well for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

Seasonality’s Quarantine Is Over

October’s market weakness and volatility is actually an encouraging sign for us. While it ...

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October 2020 Outlook: Seasonals Are Back In Style Again

Stock market seasonality has clearly been turned on its head this year. S&P 500 was down -4.1% during the Best Six Months (November-April) from October 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, while it has been up 14.5% so far during the Worst Six Months (May-October) from April 30, 2020 through the close on September 29, 2020. However, with S&P 500 down -4.7% for September to date it appears seasonals are back in style again.

The typical end-of-September weakness is priming a ...

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September 2020 Outlook: Ripe for a Brief Pause during the March Higher

Reflecting on this historic and crazy year from the breezy climes on the southern end of Long Beach Island, New Jersey we are encouraged by the tale of the tape and the stance of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. Two old market postulates are currently at play: “Don’t fight the tape,” and “Don’t fight the Fed.” In addition we have massive, unprecedented fiscal stimulus with little place to go but into the stock market, particularly U.S. stocks. The Fed’s new ...

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August 2020 Outlook: Pandemic, GDP & Election Jeopardize Rally

In mid-July the market was shrugging off pandemic setbacks, bleak economic and corporate outlooks, geopolitical tensions, civic unrest and a contentious U.S. presidential election battle with NASDAQ hitting a new all-time high and S&P 500 at a new recovery high. In fact we were looking at a classic “Hot July” pattern with DJIA up 4.6% for the month as of the close on July 22.

Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by ...

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July 2020 Outlook: Climbing COVID Cases Threaten Rally

Climbing COVID cases and confusion about reopening the economy continues to confound the market. Even though hard working people and prudent businesses around the country are working diligently to reopen and safely serve clients and customers the increase in positive tests and hospitalization nationally is hard for the market to ignore.

Waiters are reminding diners to done their masks when ordering. Folks are waiting for the next elevator and not crowding in and business have hand sanitizer at the ready for ...

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June 2020 Outlook: Rally Set to Pause at End of Best 8 Months

Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggered on May 13 when this recovery rally took a brief pause. The rally then resumed adding to May’s gains and putting NASDAQ back in the black for the year and up 5.8% year-to-date on the close of May. But the market is bumping into some resistance here technically and looks set to pause again and pullback to recent support levels.

S&P ...</p><a class= Continue Reading →

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May 2020 Outlook: Down “Best Six Months” Warning Sign

Despite the selloff on the last day of April, the Best Six Months ended on a positive note, registering the best month in decades and the best April since the Great Depression. We have been tracking our Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 since April 1. The slower MACD Sell indicator turned positive March 26 and remains in an uptrend and has not issued a new sell signal yet. At this point it would ...

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April 2020 Outlook: Beware the Bear Market Bounce

The Dow’s 6.4% rally on March 26 capped the biggest three-day surge since October 6-8, 1931. That may sound encouraging, but remember 1931 was the worst year for DJIA on record, down 52.7%. DJIA jumped 21.3% from the low on Monday March 23. This surge came on the heels of the fastest and most furious decline in stock market history. DJIA dropped 37.1% from its 2/12/2020 all-time high in 40 calendar days. It fell 35.9% in 31 days from the ...

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March 2020 Outlook: Coronavirus Fears Grip Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point loss on February 27. The market was down all day, but fluctuated dramatically with the headlines. Widespread selling pushed the market into correction territory with the Dow down 12.8% from its February 12 all-time high as of the close on February 27. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 12.0% and 12.7% from their respective February 19 all-time highs.

At 8 calendars days long (6 trading days), this is the fastest 10% ...

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