Monthly Outlook

Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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31
JUL
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, 2020 election, 4-year cycle, DJIA, election, Fed, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook July 2019: Big June Gains Hazardous for July – Worst 4 Months Prep

As you can see in the accompanying chart the U.S. stock market has been tracking rather close to the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years. As we have pointed out here the past several months, outsized gains are to be expected this year based on the Pre-Election Year pattern illustrated in the chart, especially following our positive January Indicator Trifecta. But we have also warned these gains would not come without pause and correction.

After the third best first-four-month start to ...

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2
JUL
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, 4-year cycle, best/worst, DJIA, Fed, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook June 2019: May’s Selloffs Yield June Boons

On the heels of one of the strongest January to April starts, May was destined for weakness. But this bodes well for June. May is notoriously weaker in pre-election years, like 2019, and after big starts to the year. The first four months of 2019 were up 17.5% for the S&P 500, the third best since 1950. Following the previous top 20 starts May was down 9 times for an average gain of 0.2%. June is more bullish in general ...

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4
JUN
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, DJIA, four-year cycle, June, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal, Sell in May, strong starts

Market Outlook May 2019: Market Prone to Short-Term Weakness in May

After a rough start to the “Best Six Months” with the market falling precipitously in November-December the recovery rally has put DJIA up 5.9%, S&P 500 up 8.6% and NASDAQ up 10.8% for the Best Six Months November-April from the October 31, 2018 close to the April 30, 2019 close. The history of the Best Six/Worst Six Months is impressive, though there have been off periods throughout its history. But now as the Best Six Months has come to a ...

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3
MAY
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, DJIA, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500

Market Outlook April 2019: End Q1 Consolidation Resolves Higher In April

April is the last month of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” of the year. As you can see in the accompanying chart of the “Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns” the major U.S. stock market indices have historically rallied quite sharply through April. Then DJIA in black and S&P 500 in green historically begin to move sideways at the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” (Sell in May) in May and June while NASDAQ in blue continues to run higher ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 2019 Forecast, 4-year cycle, DJIA, Fed, January Barometer, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal, technical

Market Outlook March 2019: Rally Intact Pausing at Resistance & Seasonal Weak Spots

Since Christmas the market has ripped higher on supportive market internals, still solid overall fundamentals and improving technicals. In line with the Seasonal Market Probability Calendar (graphically represented on page 20 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 in the “February Almanac”) the market succumbed to usual February weakness after the first few days of the month and again around the Presidents’ Day holiday and again today on the usually bearish last trading day of the month.

As you can see in ...

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8
MAR
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, fundamental, NASDAQ, S&P 500, technical

Market Outlook February 2019: Market Internals Support Rally & Solid 2019 Gains

The Dow posted a 7.2% gain for the month of January – not only its best monthly gain in the past three months, but its best January since 1989. S&P 500 outpaced the Dow with a 7.9% gain for the month – its best January since 1987, scoring our third January Indicator Trifecta in a row. Further details on the bullish implications of the January Indicator Trifecta can be seen here “January Barometer 2019 Official Results.”

NASDAQ stocks ...

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6
FEB
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $^RUT, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 2019 Forecast, 4-year cycle, advance/decline, DJIA, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal

Market Outlook January 2019 & Annual Forecast: Santa on Notice from Dueling Grinches – Low Nears – Bear Lurks

Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump have been competing for who can freak the market out most. Our contention for months has been that the Fed is the biggest risk to the market and economy and that surely seems to have come home to roost the past few months and this week.

Last month in our “Market at a Glance” we said that, “After nearly a decade at zero, a brief pause to evaluate the impact of recent hikes does not ...

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3
JAN
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

2019 Forecast, DJIA, Fed, First Five Days, January, January Barometer, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally

Market Outlook December 2018: Season of the Rally

It is the season for rallies, but not the Santa Claus Rally quite yet. As I reiterated once again earlier this week on my blog, the Santa Claus Rally is not any seasonal rally in the fourth quarter of the year or around yearend, it is the usual short, sweet, respectable rally Santa brings to Wall Street within the last five days of the year and the first two in January.

The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by ...

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4
DEC
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $^RUT, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, First Five Days, Free Lunch, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally

Market Outlook November 2018: Midterm Time Is Bullish

For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October.

The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not ...

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30
OCT
2018

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, midterm, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal