Almanac Update May 2019: Challenging Month in Pre-Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,008,519 for November-April in 68 years compared to just $1,031 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $720,389 for November-April ...

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3
MAY
2019

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, four-year cycle, May, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500, Seasonal, Sell in May

Strong Starts Hog Gains for the Year

Big gains the first four months of 2019 have some Wall Street pundits and analysts concerned. While strong starts for the market for the first four months of the year don’t leave much for the rest of the year, it is by no means a negative implication or bearish indication. S&P 500 leads the pack with its 17.5% gain coming in at #3 since 1950. NASDAQ’s 22.0% gain is the 5th best first four month since 1971. DJIA’s 14.0% rise ...

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1
MAY
2019

0

Seasonal Research

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500

Almanac Update April 2019: Up Thirteen Years in a Row

The first trading day of April and the second quarter, has enjoyed notable strength over the past 24 years, advancing 17 times with an average gain of 0.37% in all 24 years for S&P 500. However, four of the seven declines have occurred in the last six years. Other declines were in 2001, 2002 and 2005. DJIA’s record on April’s first trading day matches the S&P 500, 17 advances in 24 years. NASDAQ recent performance is slightly weaker than DJIA ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Almanac Update

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, April, DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P 500

Market Outlook April 2019: End Q1 Consolidation Resolves Higher In April

April is the last month of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” of the year. As you can see in the accompanying chart of the “Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns” the major U.S. stock market indices have historically rallied quite sharply through April. Then DJIA in black and S&P 500 in green historically begin to move sideways at the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” (Sell in May) in May and June while NASDAQ in blue continues to run higher ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, 2019 Forecast, 4-year cycle, DJIA, Fed, January Barometer, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal, technical

April 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the best DJIA month since 1950, third best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.”

Psychological:

Uneasy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment ...

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2
APR
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

March 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. In March the market tends to perform better in the first half than the second half. In pre-election years March has historically performed better than average with DJIA and NASDAQ ranking climbing to fourth best (S&P 500 is unchanged). Russell 2000 March performance improves to third best.

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8
MAR
2019

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook March 2019: Rally Intact Pausing at Resistance & Seasonal Weak Spots

Since Christmas the market has ripped higher on supportive market internals, still solid overall fundamentals and improving technicals. In line with the Seasonal Market Probability Calendar (graphically represented on page 20 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 in the “February Almanac”) the market succumbed to usual February weakness after the first few days of the month and again around the Presidents’ Day holiday and again today on the usually bearish last trading day of the month.

As you can see in ...

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8
MAR
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, DJIA, fundamental, NASDAQ, S&P 500, technical

Almanac Update March 2019: Even Better in Pre-Election Years

Turbulent March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-13.5%) from March 9 to the 22.

March packs a rather busy docket. It is the ...

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8
MAR
2019

0

Almanac Update

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $^RUT, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 4-year cycle, Fed, GDP, Seasonal

February 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, ...

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6
FEB
2019

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook February 2019: Market Internals Support Rally & Solid 2019 Gains

The Dow posted a 7.2% gain for the month of January – not only its best monthly gain in the past three months, but its best January since 1989. S&P 500 outpaced the Dow with a 7.9% gain for the month – its best January since 1987, scoring our third January Indicator Trifecta in a row. Further details on the bullish implications of the January Indicator Trifecta can be seen here “January Barometer 2019 Official Results.”

NASDAQ stocks ...

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6
FEB
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

$^GSPC, $^IXIC, $^RUT, $DIA, $IWM, $QQQ, $SPY, 2019 Forecast, 4-year cycle, advance/decline, DJIA, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal

Author Archive

Seasonal:

Psychological:

Seasonal:

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Seasonal:

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8
MAR
2019

0