Seasonal:Turning Bearish. July is the best month of the third quarter, but performance in pre-election years has been uninspiring. First half of July likely to be better than second half. NASDAQ’s midyear rally ends on the ninth trading day and July is the beginning of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months.”
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As you can see in the accompanying chart the U.S. stock market has been tracking rather close to the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years. As we have pointed out here the past several months, outsized gains are to be expected this year based on the Pre-Election Year pattern illustrated in the chart, especially following our positive January Indicator Trifecta. But we have also warned these gains would not come without pause and correction.
After the third best first-four-month start to ...
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July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally ...
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Seasonal:Neutral. June is the second month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months,” it also is the last month of NASDAQ “Best Eight Months.” Historically a tepid month, June has recorded respectable gains in pre-election years and following down Mays in years with strong starts.
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On the heels of one of the strongest January to April starts, May was destined for weakness. But this bodes well for June. May is notoriously weaker in pre-election years, like 2019, and after big starts to the year. The first four months of 2019 were up 17.5% for the S&P 500, the third best since 1950. Following the previous top 20 starts May was down 9 times for an average gain of 0.2%. June is more bullish in general ...
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June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 48 years as a rule ranking eighth with a 0.6% average gain, up 26 of 48 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.3%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (–0.02% average).
In pre-election years since 1950, June ranks no better than ...
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Previous analysis of big gains the first four months indicated weakness was in store for the merry month of May. Now that the market has indeed suffered this May the outlook for June is a boon at least historically speaking.
The table below shows the top 20 first four month gains for the for the S&P 500 with the subsequent changes for May, June, Rest of the Year, “Worst Six Months” May-October, 2nd half July-December and full year performance. While most ...
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Our office will be closed for observance of Memorial Day on Monday, May 27. U.S stock and bond markets will also be closed. As you spend some quality time off with family and friends please take time to commemorate those who have paid the ultimate price while serving in the U.S. military.
For decades the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been tracking and monitoring the market’s performance around holidays. The trading day after Memorial Day has a mixed record going back to ...
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After a rough start to the “Best Six Months” with the market falling precipitously in November-December the recovery rally has put DJIA up 5.9%, S&P 500 up 8.6% and NASDAQ up 10.8% for the Best Six Months November-April from the October 31, 2018 close to the April 30, 2019 close. The history of the Best Six/Worst Six Months is impressive, though there have been off periods throughout its history. But now as the Best Six Months has come to a ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance ...
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