Author Archive

Market Outlook May 2018: Worst Six Months, Crueler In Midterm Years, Begins

As the market is finally making a rally attempt at the end of April, the last month of the Best Six Months” we are obligated to remind you that the “Worst Six Months” are now upon us, and as we pointed out last month this bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years.

For the near term over the next several weeks the rally may have some legs. But as we get into the summer doldrums ...

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February 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. Even though February’s long-term record has been spotty, DJIA has advanced for eight straight February’s while S&P 500 have been up in seven of the last eight. In midterm years, February’s performance has been above average, DJIA and NASDAQ +1.0%, S&P 500 +0.7%. However, February’s following big January’s (+4% or more) have declined or finished with a less than 1% gain ...

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Almanac Update February 2018: Big January Gains Correct or Consolidate in February

February tends to follow the current trend, though big January gains often correct or consolidate during the month of Valentines and Presidents as Wall Street evaluates and adjusts market outlooks based on January’s performance. Since 1950, January S&P 500 gains of 2% or more corrected or consolidated in February 62.1% of the time. In the 20 years that the S&P 500 gained 4% or more in January, 65.0% of the time the S&P declined or finished flat (less than 1% ...

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Market Outlook February 2018: Bullish 2018 Forecast on Track, January Trifecta In Play

Incoming economic and corporate data readings along with the positive reception to the new tax law on Wall Street and in boardrooms across the country have conspired to keep my more bullish 2018 forecast scenarios from last month on track. Positive readings from the first two legs of my January Indicator Trifecta lend further support to our positive outlook for 2018. However, many have latched onto the notion that due to the fact that the market is off to its ...

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January 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best Consecutive Three month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.5%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Midterm January’s have a troublesome record with average losses for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell ...

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Almanac Update January 2018: Results from Trio of Indicators Could Reshape 2018

January has quite a legendary reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but sixth on the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and possesses a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

In midterm years, January ranks near the bottom since 1950. Large-caps have been the worst with S&P 500 and Russell 1000 ranking ...

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2018 Forecast: Healthy Economy, Strong Market & New Tax Law Bullish – DJIA 29,000 in the Cards

We’ve been digging and searching for indications that this market is running out of steam and we are headed for some sort of major correction, sizeable pullback or a bear market next year, but we have been hard-pressed to find any such data. Sure valuations and sentiment are rather high, but we all know that situation can go on for longer than most bearish investors can stay short or on the sidelines. A growing economy with increasing corporate earnings can ...

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