Posts Tagged '$DIA'

Almanac Update November 2018: First of the “Best Months”

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, ...

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Market Outlook November 2018: Midterm Time Is Bullish

For the past several months we have often heard investors and commentators saying, “Sell in May did not work this year and it hasn’t worked for the past several years” or “Sell in May is dead.” Not true. Everyone forgot about October. We always are leery of October.

The recent spell of 2-3% daily market moves has many concerned that this could turn into something more sinister or bearish. That is always a concern and still possible, but it does not ...

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So “Sell in May” Didn’t Work This Year?

Not so fast. The answer is: We don’t know yet, the Worst Six Months (WSM) are not over yet. People forget that Sell in May is NOT the whole seasonality. Our Best and Worst Months Tactical Switching Strategies are based on the Dow’s and S&P’s Best Six Months (BSM) from November through April and the Worst Six Months from May through October, and NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months (B8M) from November through June and the Worst Four Months (W4M) from July ...

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Octoberphobia Strikes Again

Okay. Everybody relax. This is normal. This is a standard October seasonal selloff. There is a long and recent history of this sort of October market volatility. Today the market suffered its worst DJIA and S&P day since February 8, 2018 and the worst NASDAQ day by percent since June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit vote.

This is typical October behavior. And like we said last week this is to be expected at the beginning of ...

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Market Outlook October 2018: Midterm October Launching Pad

Historically, the “Worst Six Months” (WSM) of the midterm year has been weaker than WSM in all other years of the 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle, with Q2-Q3 of the midterm year being the weakest consecutive two-quarter combo of the cycle. August and September have historically been the worst two months of the year, though they rank higher in midterm years, but have still posted average losses in midterm years since 1950.

This has not been the case this year. Despite a ...

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Almanac Update October 2018: Best Month of Midterm Year

October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in point and percentage terms. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon ...

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Typical September Trading: Another Historically Challenging Month

Although August is the worst month of the year for the market since 1987 (recent 31-year period), September is the worst month going back to 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500. It is also the worst month for NASDAQ since 1971 and the worst for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979. Looking at the full month of September one day at a time, just before mid-month has offered the bulls the best opportunity with the chart exhibiting strength from around ...

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