Seasonal:Neutral. Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. In election years, February’s performance remains bland.
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Seasonal:Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.7%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.2% NASDAQ +1.7%). The Santa Claus Rally ends ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bullish. November is the first month of the “Best Months.” November is also the first month of the best three consecutive month span, November through January. Since 1950, November is the best month of the year for S&P 500 and second best for DJIA and NASDAQ. However, November has been weaker in pre-election years.
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Seasonal:Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Months” for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. However, in pre-election years since 1951, October is the second worst month of the year.
Psychological:Frothy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors ...
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Seasonal:Bearish. 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). In pre-election years, rankings are unchanged while average losses expand.
Psychological:Fading. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey, ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bearish. August is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018, with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA. In pre-election years, August has been better with modest average gains.
Psychological:Complacent. ...
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Seasonal:Turning Bearish. July is the best month of the third quarter, but performance in pre-election years has been uninspiring. First half of July likely to be better than second half. NASDAQ’s midyear rally ends on the ninth trading day and July is the beginning of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months.”
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Seasonal:Neutral. June is the second month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months,” it also is the last month of NASDAQ “Best Eight Months.” Historically a tepid month, June has recorded respectable gains in pre-election years and following down Mays in years with strong starts.
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Seasonal:Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance ...
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