Market Outlook February 2020: Any Market Pause Likely Short-Lived

February is notoriously the weak link in “Best Six Months” so we expect the big run the market has been on since mid-October to at least take a breather in February as it often does to consolidate January gains and the gains over the first half of the “Best Six Months.” The market is also digesting a copious and volatile news flow, still elevated valuations and some consolidating technical readings.

Since our October 11, 2019 “Best Six/Eight Months” buy signal, as ...

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5
FEB
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Almanac, coronavirus, DJIA, February, FOMC, NASDAQ, Pandemics, S&P 500, Spending

January Barometer: January Trifecta Spoiled by Coronavirus

The market decline on the last day of January spoiled what would have been the fourth consecutive January Trifecta. S&P 500 finished January down 0.2% and thus the January Barometer is negative.

Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the January Barometer has registered ten major errors since 1950 for an 85.7% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the ten major errors Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968. 1982 ...

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5
FEB
2020

0

Seasonal Research

coronavirus, First Five Days, January Barometer, January Trifecta, Santa Claus Rally, Stock Traders Almanac

January 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.7%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.2% NASDAQ +1.7%). The Santa Claus Rally ends ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, QE4, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook January 2020: Market Sanguine on Impeachment & Sitting President Running

The House of Representatives impeached President Trump December 18, but is holding off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate until they define the rules of engagement for the Senate trial. Meanwhile the stock market rallied to new all-time highs across the board. Senate republican leadership has made it clear they are not on a trajectory to remove the president from office. The market remains sanguine as the likelihood of the president’s removal from office appears low. So we ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

2020 election, 2020 forecast, CPI, DJIA, Fed, January, January Barometer, NASDAQ, PPI, S&P 500, sitting president

Almanac Update January 2020: Not as Strong in Election Years

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, election, First Five Days, January, January Barometer, January Effect, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally

Almanac Update December 2019: If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall

December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best month for NASDAQ since 1971. Last year DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of last year is not that likely. When it does ...

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25
NOV
2019

0

Almanac Update

December, DJIA, January Effect, NASDAQ, options expiration, pre-election year, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, small caps

December 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month for DJIA since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best for NASDAQ since 1971. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Tuesday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New ...

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25
NOV
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, QE4, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook December 2019: Santa Claus Rally & Yearend Highs

The beat rolls on. In the face of ongoing geopolitical and U.S. political volatility, machinations and all the noise, equity markets continue to march higher. While economic growth has slowed underlying strength remains evident. Market internals still have room for improvement with the Advance/Decline positive but not on the same trajectory as the indices and a dearth of new 52-week highs.

If election-cycle politics come into play, we will either get a deal in principle before the December 15 date when new tariffs are supposed to kick in ...

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25
NOV
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

2020 election, big gains, DJIA, NASDAQ, New Highs, Pre-election, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, Stock Traders Almanac, Yearend

November 2019 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. November is the first month of the “Best Months.” November is also the first month of the best three consecutive month span, November through January. Since 1950, November is the best month of the year for S&P 500 and second best for DJIA and NASDAQ. However, November has been weaker in pre-election years.

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4
NOV
2019

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook November 2019: Best Six Months Underway

Despite scary trading on Halloween spooked by the latest trade and impeachment fears, the market has been rising steadily since our October 11 Seasonal Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal. Our defensive positions did well while the market gained little ground from our May 1st Sell Signal until our October 11 Buy Signal.

Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above support and logging new highs on the S&P 500, we are likely ...

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4
NOV
2019

0

Monthly Outlook

A/D Lines, best three, Bullish, DJIA, Fed, Fed put, NASDAQ, pre-election year, S&P 500, Seasonal

Author Archive

Seasonal:

Seasonal:

Seasonal:

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4
NOV
2019

0