Seasonal:Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 and the last month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months”. In election years, October ranks dead last, but excluding October 2008, ranking improves to mid-pack. Our Official MACD Seasonal Buy Signal can trigger anytime on or after October 1.
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Seasonal:Bearish. September (since 1950) is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). Bullish election-year forces do little to improve on September’s poor overall performance since 1950. Performance does improve slightly in election years, but it remains negative nearly across the board. Only the Russell 2000 has been able to escape negative territory ...
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Seasonal:Neutral. August has been the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month of the year since 1988. However, August’s track record in election years since 1950 (DJIA & S&P 500) or 1971 (NASDAQ) is much better. Average election year August performance ranges from 0.7% by DJIA to 3.3% for Russell 2000 (since 1979). This election year could be different since ...
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Climbing COVID cases and confusion about reopening the economy continues to confound the market. Even though hard working people and prudent businesses around the country are working diligently to reopen and safely serve clients and customers the increase in positive tests and hospitalization nationally is hard for the market to ignore.
Waiters are reminding diners to done their masks when ordering. Folks are waiting for the next elevator and not crowding in and business have hand sanitizer at the ready for ...
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Seasonal:Neutral. July is the best month of the third quarter, but bulk of gains are in first half of month. July is historically weaker in election years. NASDAQ’s midyear rally lasts until July 14 this year. July is the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months” and the third month of DJIA & S&P 500 “Worst Six Months.”
Seasonal:Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” has already ended. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal can trigger as soon as the close on June 1. June has performed better in Election Years, second best S&P 500 month, #5 DJIA, #4 NASDAQ and Russell 2000.
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Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 triggered on May 13 when this recovery rally took a brief pause. The rally then resumed adding to May’s gains and putting NASDAQ back in the black for the year and up 5.8% year-to-date on the close of May. But the market is bumping into some resistance here technically and looks set to pause again and pullback to recent support levels.
Seasonal:Neutral. May is the first month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months. Our Seasonal MACD Sell signal has not triggered yet suggesting the rally could continue in the near-term. The history of “Worst Six Months” after a bad “Best Months” is not encouraging. This year’s negative January Barometer and breached December DJIA low, point to possible ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. April is DJIA’s best performing month since 1950, second best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). However, April also marks the end of our “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. Our Seasonal MACD Sell signal can occur as early as April 1 but could easily be delayed should the market continue to recover ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. Normally a decent performing market month, March is above average in election years with advances 64.7% of the time with a 1.0% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 64.7% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 1.2%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since ...
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