Election Year

Almanac Update July 2020: Not Much Sizzle in Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically ...

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1
JUL
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, Election Year, Fourth of July, July, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Seasonal, Worst Four Months

July 2020 Outlook: Climbing COVID Cases Threaten Rally

Climbing COVID cases and confusion about reopening the economy continues to confound the market. Even though hard working people and prudent businesses around the country are working diligently to reopen and safely serve clients and customers the increase in positive tests and hospitalization nationally is hard for the market to ignore.

Waiters are reminding diners to done their masks when ordering. Folks are waiting for the next elevator and not crowding in and business have hand sanitizer at the ready for ...

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1
JUL
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

COVID-19, DJIA, Election Year, NASDAQ, resistance, S&P 500, seasonality, stocks, support, technical

Almanac Update June 2020: End of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months”

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 49 years as a rule ranking seventh with a 0.8% average gain, up 27 of 49 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...

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3
JUN
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, Election Year, First trading day, June, NASDAQ, options expiration, Russell 2000, S&P 500

Almanac Update May 2020: Weaker in Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,068,826 for November-April in 69 years compared to just $1,461 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $823,326 for November-April ...

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7
MAY
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, Election Year, May, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Sell in May, Vital Stats, Worst Six Months

March 2020 Outlook: Coronavirus Fears Grip Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point loss on February 27. The market was down all day, but fluctuated dramatically with the headlines. Widespread selling pushed the market into correction territory with the Dow down 12.8% from its February 12 all-time high as of the close on February 27. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 12.0% and 12.7% from their respective February 19 all-time highs.

At 8 calendars days long (6 trading days), this is the fastest 10% ...

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2
MAR
2020

0

Monthly Outlook, Uncategorized

coronavirus, COVID-19, December Low, DJIA, Election Year, January Barometer, NASDAQ, S&P 500

Posts Tagged 'Election Year'

Almanac Update July 2020: Not Much Sizzle in Election Years

July 2020 Outlook: Climbing COVID Cases Threaten Rally

Almanac Update June 2020: End of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months”

Almanac Update May 2020: Weaker in Election Years

March 2020 Outlook: Coronavirus Fears Grip Wall Street