Seasonal:Bearish. 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ (since 1971). In pre-election years, rankings are unchanged while average losses expand.
Psychological:Fading. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey, bulls ...
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Seasonal:Bearish. August is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018, with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA. In pre-election years, August has been better with modest average gains.
Psychological:Complacent. ...
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Seasonal:Turning Bearish. July is the best month of the third quarter, but performance in pre-election years has been uninspiring. First half of July likely to be better than second half. NASDAQ’s midyear rally ends on the ninth trading day and July is the beginning of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months.”
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Seasonal:Neutral. June is the second month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months,” it also is the last month of NASDAQ “Best Eight Months.” Historically a tepid month, June has recorded respectable gains in pre-election years and following down Mays in years with strong starts.
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Seasonal:Neutral. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” But NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June. In pre-election years, May can be challenging ranking #10 for DJIA and S&P 500 with fractional average gains. NASDAQ has been stronger, ranking #7 with an average advance ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bullish. April is the best DJIA month since 1950, third best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.”
Psychological:Uneasy. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. In March the market tends to perform better in the first half than the second half. In pre-election years March has historically performed better than average with DJIA and NASDAQ ranking climbing to fourth best (S&P 500 is unchanged). Russell 2000 March performance improves to third best.
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Turbulent March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-13.5%) from March 9 to the 22.
March packs a rather busy docket. It is the ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. February’s long-term track record is mixed. In all years February ranks no better than seventh. However, in pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.5% since 1979. DJIA and S&P 500, the large-cap indices, ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends ...
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