Seasonal:Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 and the last month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months”. Frightful history of market crashes aside, October has been stellar in midterm years, number one month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ.
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Seasonal:Bearish. September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1950), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). In midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–1.0%), NASDAQ (–0.8%), Russell 1000 (–1.1%) and Russell 2000 (–0.6%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years.
Seasonal:Bearish. August is the worst month of the year since 1988. Average losses over the last 30 years range from 0.3% by NASDAQ to 1.2% by DJIA. In midterm years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve slightly: #8 DJIA, #9 S&P 500, #11 NASDAQ (since 1974). Average losses range from 0.4% for S&P 500 to 1.8% for NASDAQ. DJIA suffered double-digit ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bearish. July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.4% average gain. Midterm-year July rankings are something of a mixed bag, ranking #5 for DJIA and ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bearish. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell signal can occur as soon as June 1. In midterm years, June really struggles. June is #12 DJIA and S&P 500 #10 for NASDAQ with average monthly gains ranging from -1.6% to -1.9%.
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Seasonal:Bearish. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” and the old “May/June disaster area” from 1965 to 1984. Since 1950, midterm-year Mays rank poorly, #9 ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bullish. April is the best DJIA month since 1950, third best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). However, typical midterm-election year woes have historically tempered April’s performance. April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.”
... Seasonal:Bullish. April is the best DJIA month since 1950, third best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). However, typical midterm-election year woes have historically tempered April’s performance. April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.”
... Seasonal:Bullish. Even though February’s long-term record has been spotty, DJIA has advanced for eight straight February’s while S&P 500 have been up in seven of the last eight. In midterm years, February’s performance has been above average, DJIA and NASDAQ +1.0%, S&P 500 +0.7%. However, February’s following big January’s (+4% or more) have declined or finished with a less than ...
Continue Reading → Seasonal:Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best Consecutive Three month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.5%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Midterm January’s have a troublesome record with average losses for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, ...
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