The Dow posted a 7.2% gain for the month of January – not only its best monthly gain in the past three months, but its best January since 1989. S&P 500 outpaced the Dow with a 7.9% gain for the month – its best January since 1987, scoring our third January Indicator Trifecta in a row. Further details on the bullish implications of the January Indicator Trifecta can be seen here “January Barometer 2019 Official Results.”
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Seasonal:Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.6%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Pre-election-year Januarys have been exceptional (DJIA +3.7%, S&P 500 +3.9% NASDAQ +6.6%). The Santa Claus Rally ends on ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. December is the number one S&P 500 (+1.6%) month and second best for DJIA (+1.7%) and NASDAQ (1.8% since 1971). Rarely does the market fall precipitously in December. The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Monday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New Year. S&P has averaged gains ...
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Seasonal:Bullish. November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. November also marks the beginning of the best consecutive three-month span November-January. Midterm year Novembers are solid ranking near the top across the board. Our Seasonal MACD Buy signal can trigger anytime now.
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Seasonal:Improving. October is the last month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500 and the last month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months”. Frightful history of market crashes aside, October has been stellar in midterm years, number one month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ.
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Seasonal:Bearish. September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ (since 1950), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979). In midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–1.0%), NASDAQ (–0.8%), Russell 1000 (–1.1%) and Russell 2000 (–0.6%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years.
Seasonal:Bearish. August is the worst month of the year since 1988. Average losses over the last 30 years range from 0.3% by NASDAQ to 1.2% by DJIA. In midterm years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve slightly: #8 DJIA, #9 S&P 500, #11 NASDAQ (since 1974). Average losses range from 0.4% for S&P 500 to 1.8% for NASDAQ. DJIA suffered double-digit ...
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