11
SEP
2018
SEP
2018
0
Although August is the worst month of the year for the market since 1987 (recent 31-year period), September is the worst month going back to 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500. It is also the worst month for NASDAQ since 1971 and the worst for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979. Looking at the full month of September one day at a time, just before mid-month has offered the bulls the best opportunity with the chart exhibiting strength from around ...
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5
SEP
2018
SEP
2018
Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ (since 1971). September was creamed four years straight from 1999-2002 after four solid years from 1995-1998 during the dot.com bubble madness. Although September’s overall rank improves modestly in midterm years going back to 1950, average losses widen for DJIA (–1.0%) and NASDAQ (–0.8%). S&P 500’s average September loss improves slightly from –0.5% to –0.4% in midterm years. Although September 2002 does influence the ...
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31
AUG
2018
AUG
2018
Midterm years are notoriously a rough year for markets as presidents push through their most disruptive policy initiatives and battle the opposition party to retain congressional seats. But the last three midterm years, 2006, 2010 and 2014 have been strong followed by troubled pre-election years. 2007 brought us the major top of the Financial Crisis with the S&P up 3.5%. 2011 suffered a mini-bear from April to October that shaved 19.4% off the S&P, which ended the year down a ...
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31
AUG
2018
AUG
2018
Hold the champagne! This is not the longest bull market on record or since WWII as the current buzz on The Street would have you believe. On August 22, 2018 some market analysts will deem this the longest bull market on record having avoided an “official” 20% bear market for 3453 calendar days, surpassing the October 11, 1990 to March 24, 2000 bull market – but we respectfully disagree.
We have tracked bull and bear markets with objectivity for more than ...
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15
AUG
2018
AUG
2018
Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. August was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA and S&P 500 month since 1987 with average declines of 1.0% and 0.8% respectively. August is also the worst month for NASDAQ (–0.1%) over ...
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31
JUL
2018
JUL
2018
Geopolitical concerns over the past few months from snafus and issues at the U.S. southern border over immigration disputes to tough tariff talk and trade war concerns have been shrugged off by the market since the end of June. Positive Q2 earnings, rising GDP growth, sustained unemployment and low rates continue to please the market, sending the market higher in July. This put DJIA up 4.00%, S&P 500 up 3.75% and NASDAQ up 4.40% for the month of July so ...
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31
JUL
2018
JUL
2018
From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 (page 86), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2018 Almanac and even after a modestly positive performance last year it is still the last in the upcoming 2019 edition of the Almanac. In the ...
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31
JUL
2018
JUL
2018
At the open of trading today all the major indexes were all in positive territory, but by the closing bell only DJIA and S&P 500 remained in the green for the day, up 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. NASDAQ finished basically flat on the day after surrounding early-day gains in excess of 1%. Russell 2000 had the toughest day, closing down slightly less than 1.1%. This is a reversal of the trend that existed through much of June and the first ...
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24
JUL
2018
JUL
2018
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally ...
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3
JUL
2018
JUL
2018