March 2020 Outlook: Coronavirus Fears Grip Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst one-day point loss on February 27. The market was down all day, but fluctuated dramatically with the headlines. Widespread selling pushed the market into correction territory with the Dow down 12.8% from its February 12 all-time high as of the close on February 27. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are down 12.0% and 12.7% from their respective February 19 all-time highs.

At 8 calendars days long (6 trading days), this is the fastest 10% ...

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2
MAR
2020

0

Monthly Outlook, Uncategorized

coronavirus, COVID-19, December Low, DJIA, Election Year, January Barometer, NASDAQ, S&P 500

March 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. Normally a decent performing market month, March is above average in election years with advances 64.7% of the time with a 1.0% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 64.7% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 1.2%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since ...

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2
MAR
2020

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, QE4, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Almanac Update March 2020: Beware the Ides & Month-End Weakness

Boisterous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-13.5%) from March 9 to the 22.

March packs a rather busy docket. It is the ...

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2
MAR
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, Ides of March, Julius Caesar, NASDAQ, options expiration, S&P 500

February 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. In election years, February’s performance remains bland.

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5
FEB
2020

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, QE4, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Almanac Update February 2020: Can be Challenging in Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than eighth and has posted meager average gains. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.2% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that benchmark.

A strong February in ...

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5
FEB
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, election, February, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Vital Stats

Market Outlook February 2020: Any Market Pause Likely Short-Lived

February is notoriously the weak link in “Best Six Months” so we expect the big run the market has been on since mid-October to at least take a breather in February as it often does to consolidate January gains and the gains over the first half of the “Best Six Months.” The market is also digesting a copious and volatile news flow, still elevated valuations and some consolidating technical readings.

Since our October 11, 2019 “Best Six/Eight Months” buy signal, as ...

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5
FEB
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

Almanac, coronavirus, DJIA, February, FOMC, NASDAQ, Pandemics, S&P 500, Spending

January 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.7%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950. Election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA -0.01%, S&P 500 +0.2% NASDAQ +1.7%). The Santa Claus Rally ends ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Market At A Glance

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, NASDAQ, QE4, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Market Outlook January 2020: Market Sanguine on Impeachment & Sitting President Running

The House of Representatives impeached President Trump December 18, but is holding off sending the articles of impeachment to the Senate until they define the rules of engagement for the Senate trial. Meanwhile the stock market rallied to new all-time highs across the board. Senate republican leadership has made it clear they are not on a trajectory to remove the president from office. The market remains sanguine as the likelihood of the president’s removal from office appears low. So we ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Monthly Outlook

2020 election, 2020 forecast, CPI, DJIA, Fed, January, January Barometer, NASDAQ, PPI, S&P 500, sitting president

Almanac Update January 2020: Not as Strong in Election Years

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations typically propels stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. It is the end of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those seventeen ...

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3
JAN
2020

0

Almanac Update

DJIA, election, First Five Days, January, January Barometer, January Effect, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally

Almanac Update December 2019: If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall

December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the third best month for NASDAQ since 1971. Last year DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of last year is not that likely. When it does ...

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25
NOV
2019

0

Almanac Update

December, DJIA, January Effect, NASDAQ, options expiration, pre-election year, S&P 500, Santa Claus Rally, small caps

Posts Tagged 'NASDAQ'

Seasonal:

Seasonal:

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Seasonal:

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5
FEB
2020

0