Posts Tagged 'DJIA'

Market Outlook June 2018: Best 8 Months End, Midterm Machinations Suggest Rough Summer for Stocks

To all the market seasonality naysayers and “Sell in May” or Best Six Months/Worst Six Months critics, we say thank you for your skepticism. Despite your disbelief (and perhaps because of it) the recurring seasonal market patterns highlighted in the Stock Trader’s Almanac continue to persist. Of course they are not perfect and do not work 100% of the time, and some have fallen by the wayside and some have shifted – we’ve tracked and updated those.

However, supported by a ...

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Almanac Update June 2018: Worst Month in Midterm Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 47 years as a rule ranking ninth with a 0.6% average gain, up 25 of 47 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.3%. S&P 500 performs poorly as well, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (–0.02% average).

June 2018 Vital ...</p><a class= Continue Reading →

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May 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bearish. May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” and the old “May/June disaster area” from 1965 to 1984. Since 1950, midterm-year Mays rank poorly, #9 DJIA ...

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Almanac Update May 2018: Start of “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation following the May 6, 2010 “flash crash”. It used to be part of the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground ...

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Market Outlook May 2018: Worst Six Months, Crueler In Midterm Years, Begins

As the market is finally making a rally attempt at the end of April, the last month of the Best Six Months” we are obligated to remind you that the “Worst Six Months” are now upon us, and as we pointed out last month this bearish seasonal stretch has been more pronounced in midterm years.

For the near term over the next several weeks the rally may have some legs. But as we get into the summer doldrums ...

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Seasonal Research April 2018: April’s Option Expiration Week Historically Bullish

April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 36 years on expiration day with an average gain of just under 0.2%. Expiration week as a whole has a slightly more bullish track record over the past 36 years to expiration day. Average weekly gains are 1% or better for S&P ...

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February 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. Even though February’s long-term record has been spotty, DJIA has advanced for eight straight February’s while S&P 500 have been up in seven of the last eight. In midterm years, February’s performance has been above average, DJIA and NASDAQ +1.0%, S&P 500 +0.7%. However, February’s following big January’s (+4% or more) have declined or finished with a less than 1% ...

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Almanac Update February 2018: Big January Gains Correct or Consolidate in February

February tends to follow the current trend, though big January gains often correct or consolidate during the month of Valentines and Presidents as Wall Street evaluates and adjusts market outlooks based on January’s performance. Since 1950, January S&P 500 gains of 2% or more corrected or consolidated in February 62.1% of the time. In the 20 years that the S&P 500 gained 4% or more in January, 65.0% of the time the S&P declined or finished flat (less than 1% ...

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