Posts Tagged 'DJIA'

Market Outlook September 2019: Volatility Continues & End Q3 Weakness

Last month we warned that the market was ripe for a seasonal pullback. Within days of our monthly missive late-July and early-August delivered their typical seasonal weakness, of course with a little help from the Fed, yield curve and hot-button geopolitics. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect the market to continue to track the seasonal and 4-year election cycle patterns closely as it has all year long.

Our updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid ...

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Almanac Update August 2019: Worst Performing Month of Year Over Last 31 Years

Money flows from harvesting made August a great stock market month in the first half of the Twentieth Century. It was the best month from 1901 to 1951. In 1900, 37.5% of the population was farming. Now that less than 2% farm, August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ month over the last 31 years, 1988-2018 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA. In ...

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Market Outlook August 2019: Ripe For A Seasonal Pullback

Major U.S. stock market indices continue to track historic seasonal patterns and the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years quite closely this year and that suggests it is likely to continue to do so. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have just logged new all-time highs and while that is bullish for the year as a hole and the second half in general it does indicate that we are ripe for a seasonal pullback.

As you can see in the accompanying ...

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Market Outlook July 2019: Big June Gains Hazardous for July – Worst 4 Months Prep

As you can see in the accompanying chart the U.S. stock market has been tracking rather close to the historical seasonal pattern for Pre-Election Years. As we have pointed out here the past several months, outsized gains are to be expected this year based on the Pre-Election Year pattern illustrated in the chart, especially following our positive January Indicator Trifecta. But we have also warned these gains would not come without pause and correction.

After the third best first-four-month start to ...

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Almanac Update July 2019: Luke Warm in Pre-Election Years

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally ...

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Market Outlook June 2019: May’s Selloffs Yield June Boons

On the heels of one of the strongest January to April starts, May was destined for weakness. But this bodes well for June. May is notoriously weaker in pre-election years, like 2019, and after big starts to the year. The first four months of 2019 were up 17.5% for the S&P 500, the third best since 1950. Following the previous top 20 starts May was down 9 times for an average gain of 0.2%. June is more bullish in general ...

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Almanac Update June 2019: Better in Pre-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 48 years as a rule ranking eighth with a 0.6% average gain, up 26 of 48 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.3%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (–0.02% average).

In pre-election years since 1950, June ranks no better than ...

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