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Almanac Update April 2018: Up Twelve Straight, But Weaker in Midterm Years

The first trading day of April and the second quarter, has enjoyed exceptional strength over the past 23 years, advancing 17 times with an average gain of 0.49% in all 23 years for S&P 500. Declines occurred in 2001, 2002, 2005, 2013, 2015 and 2017. The worst, or largest decline, was 1.25% in 2001. This year, April 2 is also the day after Easter which has been the S&P 500’s worst post-holiday trading session. From 1984 to 2003, S&P 500 ...

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Market Outlook April 2018: Brief Respite Before Worst Six Months & Midterm Bottom Pickers Paradise

Holiday inspired trading before the Good Friday holiday market closing helped trim losses for the month of March and Q1 2018. NASDAQ Composite’s 2.3% gain for the first quarter of 2018 was a bright spot. So while there is much negativity on the news and in market action this year, I wanted to point out some positives and encourage patience through what promises to be a tumultuous ride over the next several months as the market and economy search for ...

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Seasonal Research April 2018: April’s Option Expiration Week Historically Bullish

April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 36 years on expiration day with an average gain of just under 0.2%. Expiration week as a whole has a slightly more bullish track record over the past 36 years to expiration day. Average weekly gains are 1% or better for S&P ...

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Almanac Update March 2018: Above Average in Midterm Years

Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Historically, stock prices have often declined, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly options expiration and an ...

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Market Outlook March 2018: Still Bullish — Correction Brings Market and Valuations Back Inline

The return of volatility over the past four weeks has been quite a reality check for the market and its participants. However, it has not shaken our resolve and our bullish outlook for 2018. Economic data and forecasts remain robust, but improving economic conditions are a double-edged sword for the market.

Historically stocks tend to struggle in rising rate environments, but these levels are still well below historical averages for the 10- Year Treasury yield and below the lower end for ...

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March 2018 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the best DJIA month since 1950, third best for S&P and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). However, typical midterm-election year woes have historically tempered April’s performance. April is also the last month of the “Best Six Months.”

Psychological:

Disbelief. For ...

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Seasonal Research March 2018: First Trading Day of Q2 DJIA and S&P 500 Advance 75.0% of the Time

 

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s second best first trading day of months based upon total points gained. Only May’s first trading day is stronger. Looking back at the last 24 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 75.0% of the time (up 18 of last 24) with average gains right around 0.5%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have slightly weaker track records and smaller ...

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